Australian dollar keeps rolling, Aussie confidence data next

• AUD/USD continues to rally
• Australia to release business, consumer confidence on Tuesday
• US to release inflation on Tuesday, FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday

The Australian dollar continues to rally and is higher on Monday, trading at 0.6766, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week with gains of 2.1%. Will the rally continue?

Australia kicks off the week with consumer and business confidence numbers early Tuesday. Consumers continue to struggle with the cost-of-living crisis, while businesses are grappling with uncertain economic conditions and high interest rates. Westpac Consumer Confidence plunged 7.9% in June while NAB Business Confidence climbed up 1 point to zero in May. An improvement in the numbers on Tuesday could give the Aussie a boost.

In the US, the week ended on a quiet note, with no releases on Friday. There is plenty of action on the economic calendar this week, with the inflation report on Tuesday and the FOMC rate announcement the following day.

Inflation is expected to continue to ease in May. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 4.9% to 4.1%, and the core rate is projected to ease from 5.5% to 5.3%. Market rate pricing has moved sharply, with the probability of a pause rising sharply from 70% on Friday to 80% today. The inflation release could be a game changer, coming just one day before the Fed meeting. If inflation falls, it could cement a pause. However, if inflation moves higher, all bets are off and we could see a rate hike.

If the Fed opts not to raise rates, as expected, the markets will be scrutinising the rate statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights as to whether the non-move is a skip, in which the Fed would take a short breather and resume tightening in July. We haven’t heard from Fed members over the past 10 days to the blackout period, but prior to that, several Fed members signalled that even if the Fed paused in June, the door would remain open to further tightening.

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AUD/USD Technical

• There is resistance at 0.6804 and 0.6864
• 0.6729 and 0.6593 are providing support

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