Australian dollar remains volatile

AUD/USD has reversed directions today and is down 1.07%, trading at 0.6425.

Aussie roller-coaster continues

The currency markets have been busy this week, and the Australian dollar hasn’t missed out on the action. On Wednesday, AUD/USD traded in a range of almost 200 points and ended the day with sharp gains of 1.3%, but has pared most of those gains today. The Aussie has found itself on a nasty downward trend and is down 5.3% in September.

Australia’s economy continues to perform well, and retail sales rose 0.6% MoM, above the consensus of 0.4%. This was slower than the super-strong gain of 1.3% in July, but household spending appears to be holding up, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate-tightening cycle and high inflation.

Unfortunately for the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, domestic data is not nearly as important as developments abroad, and the combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve and ominous developments in the Ukraine conflict have strengthened the US dollar and heightened risk aversion. With the Fed expected to continue with large hikes and Russia threatening to annex parts of Ukraine on Friday, the Australian dollar is likely to face further headwinds.

Fed officials have signalled that the current cycle may soon come to a close, but the markets aren’t expecting any easing until there are clear signs that inflation has peaked. Although CPI dropped in August, inflation was higher than expected, which poured cold water on any hopes of the Fed making a U-turn on policy. The markets have priced a terminal rate of 4.60%, and with a current benchmark rate of 3.25%, more rate hikes are clearly coming. The US economy is in solid shape, which will enable the Fed to continue raising rates in order to tame red-hot inflation.

.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363
• There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.