EUR/USD – Coasting into year-end

The end of the year is drawing near and some markets may finally be in holiday mode.

EURUSD has been range-bound for a month and last week could have provided the catalyst to change that – Fed accelerating tapering and bringing forward rate hikes, ECB ending PEPP – but instead, it just confirmed that markets were well positioned.

Now it seems they may be snoozing into year-end. But where does that leave us? The pair remains in a bearish pattern and unless we get a break higher, the path of least resistance remains below.

But it could be argued that the recent consolidation is a holding pattern that could precede a trend reversal. A move above 1.14 would certainly support that, breaking the highs and the 200/233-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

A break of 1.15 remains the big test though.

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