The US dollar rallies

US dollar edges higher as Omicron concerns ease

With omicron nerves easing overnight the US dollar reasserted itself, rallying modestly versus major currencies and holding steady in the EM space. The dollar index finished 0.10% higher at 96.12, edging higher to 96.17 in Asia. Notably, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, key risk-sentiment barometers fell once again to 2021 lows, hinting that caution remains the key mantra in currency markets still.

EUR/USD has slid back below 1.1300 to 1.1295 and an upbeat US Non-Farm Payrolls tonight will set up a test of 1.1200 again next week. In a similar vein, GBP/USD has moved back through 1.3300 to 1.3390, with a retest of 1.3200 possible. USD/JPY rose as yen haven buying subsided overnight, climbing to 113.20 this morning. If indeed we are at “peak-omicron,” then this week’s low of 112.50 is likely to be the low for the pair for the foreseeable future.

The EM space was relatively sedate overnight, but the US dollar has resumed advances once again versus Asia FX today with USD/KRW, USD/IDR and USD/MYR up around 0.20%. A firm Non-Farm Payrolls number tonight will increase the pressure of the Asian currencies, whose monetary policies, buy and large, are not aligned with a Federal Reserve set to increase the pace of its taper.

I expect currency markets to remain subdued into the US tier-1 data. As usual this week, the caveat is omicron. If another negative headline were to hit the wires today, we will likely see US Dollar selling with the yen and Swiss franc as the main beneficiaries.

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