USD/CAD falls to one-month low

• Canada’s CPI expected to decline

The Canadian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3441, down 0.33%. Earlier in the day, the Canadian dollar strengthened and touched a low of 1.3436, its best showing since September 15th.

Canada’s CPI expected to fall

The Bank of Canada will be keeping close tabs on today’s inflation report. CPI for August is expected to fall to 0.3% m/m, compared to 0.6% m/m in July. The core rate is also expected to ease to 0.3%, down from 0.5%. If the inflation readings decline as expected, it will provide support for the BoC to pause for a second straight time at the October meeting.

The BoC will release the minutes (Summary of Deliberations) of the September meeting on Wednesday. At the meeting, the BoC held the benchmark cash rate at 5.0%. Policy makers reiterated that they stood ready to continue to hike in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, saying they “remained concerned about the persistence” of underlying price pressures. I expect that the minutes will make further references to Canada’s inflation rate.

The BoC’s rate statement at the meeting noted that weaker demand and a concern about the lagging effect of previous hikes led to a decision to keep rates unchanged. Policy makers reiterated that would “continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI”, which makes today’s inflation release an important factor in the October rate decision.

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USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.3408. The next support line is 1.3323
• 1.3468 and 1.3553 are the next resistance lines

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