USD/CHF edges up ahead of SNB rate decision

The Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day.

Swiss National Bank cut looms, but how much?

‘Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and a rate cut has been fully priced, but what will the SNB do? The market has currently priced a 50-basis point cut at 60% and a modest 25-bp cut at 40%. Just one week ago, the odds were 70-30 in favor of a 50-bp cut.

Inflation declined by 0.1% in November and Switzerland hasn’t posted a gain in inflation since May. The signs of deflation support the case for a jumbo 50-bp cut. Still, central banks prefer modest rate moves in 25-bp increments and with the cash rate at just 1%, policymakers may opt for a 25-bp cut.

US inflation ticks higher, as expected

US inflation for November was a non-event for the US dollar, which has shown little movement today against the major currencies. Headline CPI ticked higher to 2.7% y/y up from 2.6% in October, while the core rate rose 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Monthly, headline CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core CPI rose was unchanged at 0.3%. The data matched expectations which explains the muted response of the US dollar.

In the aftermath of today’s inflation data, the market expectations for a rate cut at the Dec .18 meeting have jumped. The rate odds for a quarter-point have climbed to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and is poised for a third cut next week, even though the inflation downswing has stalled and inflation remains higher than the Fed’s 2% target.

USD/CHF Technical

• USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.8853 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.8876
• 0.8810 and 0.8787 are the next support levels

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