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GBP/USD – Is cable topping out as US data outperforms again?

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  • US GDP rises 3.3% (annualized) in Q4
  • A fairytale outcome for the US economy
  • GBPUSD drifts lower

US economic data continues to point to an economy that’s doing very well despite the various headwinds including very high interest rates.

GDP data for the fourth quarter easily exceeded expectations, rising 3.3% on an annualized basis, adding to the increasing view that the US could be heading for a fairytale scenario, not just a soft landing.

We’ve spoken a lot about resilence in the US economy over the last couple of years but that the economy can continue to show such strength and low unemployment with interest rates so high and inflation falling back toward target is unbelievable.

Cable edges lower after failing again at 1.28

The pound has repeatedly tested 1.28 against the dollar over the last couple of months and despite the occasional breach, it’s failed to significantly break higher.

GBPUSD Daily

Source – OANDA

It broke below a rising trendline last week, further signaling that the trend is weakening, amid divergence between price and the MACD. It’s now tested those highs again – and the trend line – and failed which could be another suggestion that the rally is running on fumes.

A move below 1.26, the low of the last month, would further back this up and could trigger a sharper decline in the pair.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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