Australian dollar jumps as Chinese deflation eases

• Australian dollar jumps 1%
• Australia releases consumer and business confidence on Tuesday

The Australian dollar is sparkling on Monday, with massive gains of 1% against the US dollar. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6441.

China inflation numbers boost Aussie

The Australian dollar received a major boost after China’s inflation release over the weekend. CPI for August rose 0.1% y/y, following a -0.3% reading in July, which marked the first monthly decline in over two years. On a monthly basis, August CPI rose 0.3%, higher than the July gain of 0.2% and matching the consensus. As well, producer prices fell 3%, down from -4.4% in August. The inflation data didn’t knock anyone off their seats, but the fact that deflation showed signs of easing raised risk appetite and boosted the Australian dollar.

China’s economy has deteriorated more sharply than expected, raising alarm bells about the strength of the world’s second-largest economy. The government has responded by injecting stimulus including interest rate cuts and tax breaks but will need to do more to boost economic activity. Manufacturing continues to decline and growth in the services sector has been weakening. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and the Australian dollar is sensitive to economic developments, as we saw earlier today with the Aussie’s sharp gains.

Australian consumers and businesses have been squeezed by high inflation and interest rates, which has taken a toll on confidence. We’ll get a look at consumer and business confidence on Tuesday. Westpac Consumer Confidence Change slipped 0.4% in August but is expected to rebound to 0.6% in September. The NAB Business Confidence index is projected to dip to 1 in August, up from 2 in July. A reading above zero points to improving conditions and below zero to worsening conditions.

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AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 0.6405 and 0.6453. Above, there is resistance at 0.6528
• There is support at 0.6330 and 0.6282

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