Fed hawks in control after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services reading

• ADP shows 497,000 jobs created in June, biggest gains in over a year
• ISM Services Index makes 4-month high
• ISM Prices paid declined from 56.2 to 54.1, lowest since March 2020

US stocks extend losses after a hot ADP report and impressive ISM services report raised the odds the Fed might have to do deliver more rate hikes beyond the July FOMC meeting. The dollar pared losses as Fed rate hike odds rose on expectations the NFP report will deliver its 15^th straight beat.

ADP

The labor market is not loosening at all according to this ADP report.  The headline gain of 497,000 jobs was much higher than the forecast of 225,000 and well above the downwardly revised prior reading of 267,000 jobs.  Leisure and hospitality jobs surged 232,000 as summer job hiring supports the narrative that Americans will be vacationing a lot this summer.  The Fed’s rate hiking campaign is not yet crippling small and medium size businesses, but that should change going into the fall. 

ADP Chief Economist Richardson noted, “Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected. But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge”.

The ADP report also includes coverage on wages, which showed year-over-year pay increase of 6.4%, which was down from 6.6% in May. 

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 1^st rose from 236,000 to 248,000, which was higher than the 245,000 consensus estimate.  Traders might not put a lot of weight with this weekly jobless claims report as it includes noise from the Juneteenth holiday and the summer auto closures. 

Trade Data

The May trade data showed the deficit narrowed from $74 billion to $69 billion as imports dropped 2.3% and exports weakened by 0.8%. The trade deficit won’t get a lot of attention but it does support the narrative that the economy is slowing down. 

Fed

Fed’s Logan noted that more rate hikes are necessary to combat inflation. Adding that a challenging and uncertain environment enabled a June pause.

The data-dependent Fed will look at the labor market and that should support the case for much more tightening.

JOLTS

The JOLTS report suggests the labor market is slowly weakening as job openings fell from 10.3 million to 9.824 million. The quits rate increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, which suggests people are confident they can get new work.

ISM Services Index

The ISM Services report showed last month’s soft reading was not the beginning of a deteriorating trend. The ISM Services Index surged in June, rising to 53.9, significantly better than the prior reading of 50.3 and a 51.2 consensus estimate. Prices paid eased from 56.2 to 54.1. The employment component returned to expansionary territory at 53.1. This data suggest the economy still has a lot of strength.

Treasury yields surged after the impressively strong ADP report and kept those gains post ISM services.  

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