UK100 – Manufacturing PMIs remain weak but signs of promise in China

• Manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction territory
• UK100 rebounds after key technical move lower
• Fib levels could be interesting

We’ve had a selection of manufacturing PMIs this morning and, as we’ve come to expect, they weren’t particularly surprising.

The Caixin survey in China dipped back into contraction territory, in line with what we saw from the official reading yesterday, but there is some optimism that circumstances are gradually improving and will continue to do so, despite the obvious challenges.

The UK manufacturing PMI only marginally improved and less than what was expected. It remains deep into contraction territory and isn’t expected to significantly improve any time soon. While far from ideal, it is only a small portion of the UK economy, with the services sector far more important to how it performs, and while that’s also in contraction, it is so to a much lesser extent.

UK100 bounces off lows but there are still barriers to overcome

We’ve seen a slight recovery so far this week after the UK100 came close to its 2023 lows around 7,200. The early rebound may look promising, but I’m still not convinced.

UK100 Daily

Source – OANDA on Trading View

One reason is the double top that preceded the move below 7,400 a couple of weeks ago. The size of the move we’ve seen since arguably doesn’t reflect the significance of the breakout, with the theory being that the size of the pattern offers an insight into the move that may follow below. It’s not an exact science and things can change after the breakout but the move we’ve seen represents around half the double top.

The rebound has also, so far, been relatively uninspiring, and sentiment more broadly in the markets continues to look a little soft. The first test of this falls around 7,400 which so far appears to be offering some resistance. Even a move above here though may be a corrective move in the mid to late October sell-off, at which point key fib levels could offer interesting areas of potential resistance.

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