AUD/USD – Australian retail sales flat, Aussie shrugs

The Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6804 in the European session, up 0.09% today at the time of writing.

Australian retail sales stagnate

Consumer spending in Australia has been weak, which has chilled economic activity. Retail sales for July didn’t provide any relief with a reading of zero, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and well off the June gain of 0.5%. Consumers continue to feel squeezed by elevated interest rates and the high cost of living. The weak economy and a cooling labor market are making consumers even more cautious about discretionary spending.

Will today’s soft data prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate cut? The RBA is frustrated with the slow decline in inflation – Governor Bullock has said that the central bank is unlikely to cut for six months and RBA members have been discussing a possible rate hike at recent meetings. The markets are marching to a different tune and have priced in a rate cut in November with more cuts early next year.

The remaining tier-1 events ahead of the Sept. 24 policy meeting are GDP and the employment report and both releases will be important factors in the rate decision. If these numbers are weaker than supported, it would support the case for a rate cut before year’s end.

The week wraps up with the US Core PCE Price index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The markets are expecting a small increase in July – from 2.5% to 2.6% y/y and 0.1% to 0.2% m/m. A small move is unlikely to concern the Fed, which has shifted its focus to the weakening labor market now that the battle with inflation is largely over.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6808. Above, there is resistance at 0.6822
• 0.6776 and 0.6754 are providing support

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