AUD/USD dips as Aussie jobs data sparkles, US retail sales dip

Australia adds 56.3 thousand jobs 

Australia’s labor market continues to hum and has been a bright light in an otherwise weak economy. In December, employment soared with a gain of 56.3 thousand, following a downwardly revised 28.2 thousand in November and crushing the market estimate of 15 thousand. The sharp gain, however, was comprised solely from part-time jobs (+80K) as full-time jobs declined (-23.7K). The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.0% from 3.9%, in line with the market estimate.

The solid employment data means that the Reserve Bank of Australia need not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. The central bank has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year and is keeping a close eye on the health of the labor market. The RBA meets next on Feb. 18 and the money markets have priced in quarter-point cut at around 75%. The RBA’s preferred measure for underlying inflation, the “trimmed mean”, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November, close to the upper band of the RBA’s 2-3% target. Australia releases fourth-quarter inflation data on Jan. 29, which could be a determining factor as to whether the RBA will finally cut rates or prolong the pause.

US retail sales ease in December

In the US, retail sales weakened in December. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.9% from an upwardly revised 4.1% and below the forecast of 4.0%. Monthly, retail sales fell to 0.4% from an upwardly revised 0.8% and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Despite the slowdown in December, consumer spending remains robust and the Federal Reserve won’t feel any pressure to change its rate paths due to today’s retail sales.

This week’s weaker-than-expected retail sales and inflation reports have significantly raised the expectations of a rate cut in March, from 19% two days ago to 31% currently, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The Fed is virtually certain to hold rates at the Jan. 29 meeting.

AUD/USD Technical

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