AUD/USD edges higher as inflation expectations eases

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is up 0.16%, trading at 0.6684 at the time of writing.

Australia’s inflation expectations dip to 4.4%

Australia’s consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.4% in September, down slightly from 4.5% in August but above the forecast of 4.1%. The small decline reflects the path of inflation, which is moving lower but at a slow pace, a source of concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The RBA has made considerable progress in the battle with inflation but inflationary pressures remains sticky despite elevated interest rates. Most major central banks have cut rates in the new era of lower inflation but the RBA is yet to join the club.

Inflation fell to 3.5% in July, down from 3.8% but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This remains well above the RBA’s target of between 2 and 3 percent. Governor Bullock has said that it’s too early to consider lowering rates but the markets are more dovish and expect an initial rate cut later in the year. The RBA meets next on Sept. 24 and is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, although an unexpected figure from next week’s employment report could mean some suspense before the rate announcement.

The Federal Reserve meets on Sept. 18 and the markets have fully priced in a rate cut. The Fed has held rates at the 5.25-5.50% target for over a year and this initial cut could have a significant impact on the financial markets. The most likely scenario is a modest 25-bps cut but JP Morgan is projecting a jumbo 50-bps cut.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6693. Above, there is resistance at 0.6711
• 0.6657 and 0.6639 are the next support levels

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