The Australian dollar has posted losses on Monday. Early in the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6227, down 0.31% at the time of writing.
Market hopes for rate path hints from RBA minutes
It’s a very light calendar week, with the Christmas holiday just around the corner. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of this month’s meeting on Tuesday, which is the sole Australian event this week.
At the December meeting, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for the ninth straight time. Still, the rate statement held out hope for a near-term rate cut, based on some nuances in the language. Previous statements had signaled that rate hikes were on the table, with the board stating it was not “ruling anything in or out”, but this phrase was omitted in the December statement.
The RBA also sounded more optimistic about the inflation outlook, with the statement noting that the board was “gaining confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target”. The market viewed this language as being dovish, although Governor Bullock reiterated after the meeting that the February rate decision would be based on the data.
US sees decline in durable goods orders, consumer confidence
In the US, durable goods orders declined 1.1% m/m in November, after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in October and well below the market estimate of -0.4%. The decline was largely driven by a decrease in new orders for transportation equipment.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell sharply in December to 104.7, down from an upwardly revised 112.8 and well off the market estimate of 113. Consumers were less optimistic about the employment outlook and incomes. The Conference Board report found that consumers are concerned that the tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration will push prices higher in 2025.
AUD/USD Technical
- AUD/USD pushed below support at 0.6247 and tested support at 0.6219 earlier
- 0.6278 and 0.6306 are the next resistance lines
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Kenny Fisher
Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
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