Australian dollar calm after RBA minutes

• RBA releases minutes
• Investors eye Israel-Hamas war

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6353 in Europe, up 0.18%.

It has been a rough patch for the Australian dollar lately. The Aussie hasn’t managed a winning week since September and dropped close to a one-year low last week. The Australian dollar has rebounded this week, gaining close to 1%, as the US dollar has lost some steam.

We’ve been hearing a lot about the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance and the markets are less confident that the Fed is done with the current tightening cycle than they were a few months ago. The fighting in the Middle East has created a new “higher for longer” in terms of uncertainty, which could result in elevated volatility in the currency markets.

The US dollar, a trusted safe-haven asset, has not benefited from the latest turmoil in the Middle East, at least not yet. There is widespread concern that the Israel-Hamas war could spread to Lebanon and even to Iran. The US is determined to halt any contagion and has dispatched aircraft carriers to the region.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of this month’s meeting earlier today. The central bank held rates at 4.10% for a fourth straight time, but the minutes showed that there was consideration to raise rates by a quarter-point.

The board members noted that inflation was well above the 2%-3% target and “was expected to do so for some time”, with rising fuel prices adding to headline inflation. The minutes noted that the current tightening cycle continued to filter through the economy and the full effects were yet to be felt.

The RBA meets next on November 3^rd and members will have plenty of data to chew on ahead of the rate decision. Australia releases an employment report on Thursday, inflation next week and economic forecasts prior to the meeting. The RBA has said that rate decisions will be data-dependent, and these releases will determine whether the RBA extends its pause phase or delivers a rate hike.

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AUD/USD Technical

With the Australian dollar showing limited movement, the support and resistance levels are unchanged from Monday:

• AUD/USD continues to test resistance at 0.6343. Above, there is resistance at 0.6399
• 0.6240 and 0.6184 are providing support

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