Australian dollar stabilizes, consumer sentiment next

The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains, after sliding 0.86% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6530, up 0.24%.

PBoC move sends Aussie sharply lower

The Australian dollar ended the week with sharp losses after China’s central bank set the daily fixing of the Chinese yuan lower than expected on Friday. The PBoC weakened the yuan in order to boost China’s struggling economy and the move led to an AUD/USD sell-off on Friday. China is Australia’s number one trading partner, and currency interventions such as the PBoC move can have a major impact on the Australian dollar.

It’s a light day on the data calendar, which means we can expect a quiet day for AUD/USD. The only tier-1 event is US New Home Sales, which is expected to rise to 680,000 in February, up from 661,000 in January.

Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with the markets braced for a decline of 1.6% for March. This follows a sparkling 6.2% gain in February, as consumer confidence climb sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates earlier in February. Consumers expressed optimism that the RBA had winded up its rate-tightening cycle.

In the US, the markets have high hopes for three rate cuts this year, and the Fed’s “dot plot” projection at last week’s meeting also projected three cuts this year. However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic dampened the mood on Friday when he said that he expects only one quarter-point cut this year. Bostic said that he was “definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to drop towards the 2% target.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6534. Above, there is resistance at 0.6558
• There is support at 0.6490 and 0.6466

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