British pound calm ahead of UK jobs report

The British pound is drifting on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2768 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day.

Wage growth expected to slide

The UK releases the employment report for the three months to June and we could see signs of a cooling labour market. Annualized average earnings including bonuses, which has hovered between 5.5%-6% all year, is expected to fall sharply to 4.6%. The previous reading came in at 5.7%, the lowest since September 2022.

The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 4.4% for the past two readings, the highest since September 2021. Unemployment is expected to nudge up to 4.5% in the three months to June. This would signal that the labor market is weakening and would make

If wage growth declines and the unemployment rate rises in tomorrow’s report, it would support the case for the Bank of England delivering another rate cut, perhaps as soon as next month. The BoE meets on September 19, just one day after the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by at least a quarter-point. The BoE joined the central bank trend of cutting rates earlier this month when it lowered rates by a quarter-point to 5%. We have entered a new phase of the central bank cycle, with most of the major central banks having already lowered rates.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower rates at the September meeting, but by how much? Just one month ago, the markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 90%, according to the CME’s FedWatch, but then the US posted some weak numbers and the financial markets sank. This has boosted the likelihood of a half-point cut, which on Friday was around a 50/50 split with a quarter-point cut.

Still, not everybody who has a say is urging a rate cut. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a voting member on the FOMC, said on Friday that she is hesitant about cutting rates, since inflation is “uncomfortably above” the 2% target and the labor market remains strong.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2779. Above, there is resistance at 1.2801
• 1.2753 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 1.2731

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