Canadian dollar pares gains after inflation rises

• Canada’s CPI rises in August
• Federal widely expected to hold rates

The Canadian dollar is drifting in Wednesday’s European session. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.11%.

Canada’s CPI jumps

Canada’s inflation rate rose sharply in July and the Canadian dollar rose as much as 0.70% on Tuesday and hit a 5-week high, but pared most of these gains. Headline inflation climbed 4.0%, up from 3.3% in June, with much of the upswing due to higher gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, below the June read of 0.6% but above the consensus estimate of 0.3%.

Two of the Bank of Canada’s core CPI gauges climbed 4.0% on average, up from 3.75% on average in June and above the consensus estimate of 3.7%. Will the uptick in inflation force the central bank to raise interest rates at the October 25^th meeting? Traders remain split on that question, but the odds of a hike have risen to 42%, up from 23% prior to the inflation release.

The BoC paused at the meeting earlier this month, holding rates at 5.0%. Inflation is double the Bank’s 2% target, but with the economy showing signs of softening, including negative growth of -0.2% in the second quarter, BoC policy makers may be willing to wait for its tightening cycle to make its way through the economy.

The BoC will release the minutes (Summary of Deliberations) of the September meeting on Wednesday. At the meeting, the BoC held the benchmark cash rate at 5.0%. Policy makers reiterated that they stood ready to continue to hike in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, saying they “remained concerned about the persistence” of underlying price pressures. A hawkish tone to the minutes would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.

The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at today’s meeting, leaving investors to focus on the dot plot, which is a quarterly rate projection released by the Fed. The June dot plot projected one more quarter-point hike this year and 100 basis points in rate cuts in 2024, and any changes in these forecasts could shift the Fed rate odds for the October meeting, which are currently at 27%, according to the FedWatch tool.

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USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD continues to pressure on support at 1.3408. The next support line is 1.3323
• 1.3468 and 1.3553 are the next resistance lines

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