Canadian dollar shrugs as Can. CPI drops to 3-year low

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday after posting gains over the past two days. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3636 at the time of writing.

Canada’s inflation eases to 2.5%

Canada’s headline CPI rose to 2.5% year-on-year in July, down from 2.7% in June and matching the market estimate. This marked the lowest annual inflation level since March 2021. Monthly, inflation rose to 0.4% in July following a decline in June of -0.1% and in line with the market estimate. The jump in the monthly report was driven by higher gasoline prices.

Core CPI, which is more closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, also eased. The average of two of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core measures of inflation eased slightly to 2.55% year-on-year in July, compared to 2.7% in June.

The decline in inflation is an encouraging sign for the BoC, which would like to continue trimming interest rates as the economy cools and also provide relief to homeowners who are struggling with high rates. The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and is mindful that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower rates, perhaps by a half-point. This means that BoC policy makers don’t have to worry that another rate cut would hurt the Canadian dollar if the Fed follows suit with its own rate cut.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower rates at the September meeting, with uncertainty as to the size of the expected reduction. The probability of a 25-basis point cut stands at 75% and a 50 bps cut at 25%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. On Friday, Jerome Powell will address the Jackson Hole Symposium and could signal what the Fed has in store for next month’s meeting.
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USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD tested support at 1.3614 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3594
• There is resistance at 1.3650 and 1.3670

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