EUR/USD – Euro jumps higher after US JOLTs Job Openings underperforms

EUR/USD was drifting earlier but has jumped higher in the North American session after a weak showing from US JOLTS Job Openings. We’ll get a look at German and eurozone Services PMIs on Wednesday.

In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0967, up 0.66%.

US JOLTs Job Openings slips below 10 million

In the US, a host of employment releases this week kicked off today. JOLTS Job Openings for February surprised on the downside at 9.93 million, versus a downwardly revised 10.56 million in January and 10.4 million anticipated. This was the lowest reading and the first below the 10-million mark since June 2021. The soft employment reading has sent the US dollar into retreat against the major currencies, including the euro.

Has the bottom finally fallen out of the robust US labour market? It is premature to base any conclusions on one release, but the upcoming unemployment and nonfarm payroll reports could trigger market jitters if they also fall short of expectations.

The Federal Reserve will be looking at nonfarm payrolls as a key factor in its rate decision in May. Market pricing for rate moves remains fluid and I expect that to continue. Earlier today the CME Group pegged the odds of a 25-bp hike at 59%, and a pause at 39%. That has changed dramatically since the JOLTs Job Openings release. Currently, the odds stand at 60% for a pause and 40% for a 25-bp hike.

In Europe, PMIs continue to show strength in business activity but deterioration in the manufacturing sector, a trend we are seeing in many of the major economies, including the US. Earlier this week, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs came in at 44.7 and 47.3, respectively, below the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. Services PMIs will be released on Wednesday, with estimates of 53.9 in Germany and 55.6 in the Eurozone.

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EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0931, followed by resistance 1.1019
• There is support at 1.0838 and 1.0750

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