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EUR/USD – slightly lower as ECB holds interest rates

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The euro has edged lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0919, down 0.18% on the day. The euro hasn’t posted a losing day since July 9, gaining 1% during that period.

ECB maintains rates at 3.75%

The European Central Bank maintained its key lending rate at 3.75% at today’s meeting, after cutting rates by a quarter-point in June. The decision to hold rates was widely expected, especially after the June cut, and the euro has had a calm day. The markets are following ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, hoping for clues about future rate policy.

The rate statement noted that “services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year”. The markets weren’t perturbed by this hawkish comment as the ECB has demonstrated that it is willing to lower rates even when inflation is above the 2% level, as it did in June.

The markets have priced in two more quarter-point cuts in September and December. ECB policy makers have been cautious and the rate statement reiterated that the ECB was “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. ECB officials have stressed that inflation remains high and wage growth, which is feeding services inflation, needs to come down in order for the ECB to feel confident in lowering rates further.

In the US, Fedspeak will be in focus, with five public appearances from FOMC members before the week is over. Investors will be hoping to get some insights on Fed rate policy, with the markets widely expecting a rate cut in September.
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EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0928. Below, there is support at 1.0907
  • 1.0960 and 1.0981 are the next resistance lines

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
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