Euro eyes French inflation

The euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction.

French inflation expected to accelerate

The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Monthly, CPI is expected to tick up to 0.1%, up from 0% in May.
The European Central Bank will be hoping that inflation moves lower towards the 2% target. The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and another rate cut will largely depend on the direction that inflation takes. Policy makers have long been concerned about an inflation rebound following a rate cut and an increase in eurozone inflation next week would dampen hopes of another rate cut in the near term. The ECB meets next on July 18th.

It has been a relatively quiet week for the euro but that could change on the weekend, as French voters go to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary vote. French President Macron called the snap elections after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections. Macron is hoping to mobilize the center, but if his plan backfires and the extreme right gains ground, it will trigger uncertainty in France and the financial markets and the euro would likely take a tumble. The election drama could mean volatility from the euro on Monday.

In the US, Final (third estimate) GDP posted a gain of 1.4% q/q, as expected. This was slightly higher than the 1.3% gain in the second estimate. The US economy has slowed down significantly in the first quarter, after a strong gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, the Fed is yet to cut rates due to unexpectedly high inflation.
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EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0710. Above, there is resistance at 1.0740
• 1.0688 and 1.0658 are providing support

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