Euro shrugs after Lagarde comments

• ECB’s Lagarde says inflation fight not over
• US PMIs paint a mixed picture

The euro is almost unchanged on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0948, down 0.05%.

Lagarde says inflation fight not over

The week started with no eurozone releases, giving investors plenty of time to focus on remarks from ECB President Lagarde to an EU parliamentary committee. Lagarde said that inflation was expected to continue falling but there was considerable uncertainty and “this is not the time to start declaring victory” over inflation. Lagarde’s caution is understandable, as the ECB does not want to convey a message that the battle against inflation is over when inflation is running at a 4.2% clip, more than twice the ECB’s 2% target. Eurozone inflation data will be released on Thursday and is expected to continue falling, with a consensus estimate of 3.9%.

The ECB has raised rates to 4.0% but has signalled a “higher for longer” policy for the next several quarters. The markets are more dovish and are looking for a rate cut sometime in mid-2024. The ECB hasn’t made mention of any plans to cut rates, and Lagarde didn’t shed any light on rate policy today, as she merely repeated that rates would remain “sufficiently restrictive” for as long as necessary.

The US ended the week with a mixed PMI report. Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.4, down from 50.0 and shy of the consensus estimate of 49.8. Manufacturing has posted mostly declines as the sector remains in a severe slump. Services is in better shape, with the PMI pointing to weak growth in the past few months. The PMI improved slightly to 50.8 in October, up from 50.6 a month earlier. On Thursday, the US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to post another decline.

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EUR/USD Technical

• There is resistance at 1.0943 and 1.0997
• 1.0831 and 1.0748 are providing support

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