Euro jumps to 5-month high

• Euro climbs sharply as risk appetite rises
• US Richmond Manufacturing Index falls

The euro has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1121, up 0.72%.

Euro climbs on risk-on mood

The US dollar is under pressure this week as we’re seeing a risk-on mood in global markets. The week between Christmas and New Year’s is normally quiet, with a very light data calendar. However, investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates early next year and this sentiment has sent equity markets higher while weighing on the US dollar. The euro is powering higher, with gains of 2.1% in December and 2.9% in November against the retreating US dollar.

Federal Chair Powell surprised the markets when he pencilled in three rate cuts for next year. Investors had braced themselves for Powell to push back against rate cut expectations, a script he has followed for months. This time, however, Powell jumped on the bandwagon although Fed members have since urged the markets to tamper their expectations of up to six rate cuts next year. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in March, with over 150 basis points in cuts for all of 2024 according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

There is a similar disconnect between the markets and the European Central Bank. The markets are looking at six rate cuts next year, perhaps as early as March, while the ECB has tried to dampen these expectations. ECB President Lagarde stated last week that members had not discussed a rate cut at the December meeting, at which the central bank held the cash rate at 4.0% for a second straight time. I expect that markets in both the US and Europe will remain much more bullish about rate cuts than the central banks.

It’s a light data calendar between Christmas and New Year’s in the US. The Richmond Manufacturing Index decelerated to -11 today, down from -5 in November and missing the market consensus of -6. On Thursday, unemployment claims are expected to drop to 205,000, down from 210,000 a week earlier.

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EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1072. Above, there is resistance at 1.1130
• 1.0982 and 1.0924 is providing support

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