GBP/USD calm ahead of UK GDP

• UK GDP expected to decline

The British pound is showing little movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2276, down 0.07%.

Markets brace for contraction in GDP

The UK economy has been struggling and Friday’s GDP is expected to indicate negative growth, with a market consensus of -0.1% q/q for the third quarter. In Q2, GDP showed a small gain of 0.2%. August GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September. A soft GDP report will raise speculation about a recession and could weigh on the pound.

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appeared to backtrack earlier today after saying on Wednesday that market pricing of a rate cut in August 2024 was “not totally unreasonable”. Pill stated on Thursday that the BoE expected to maintain restrictive rates for an extended period, but would not make any promises. On Wednesday, Governor Bailey dismissed the possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Pill may have wanted to put to rest any speculation that his remarks contradicted Bailey’s comments. The BoE maintained rates at 5.25% last week and holds its next meeting on 14 December.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn’t discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be looking for some hints about monetary policy when Powell speaks later in the day.

Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs that the Fed would trim rates in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target.

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GBP/USD Technical

• 1.2287 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2340
• There is support at 1.2214 and 1.2175

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