NZD/USD eyes RBNZ rate meeting

• RBNZ likely to maintain rates at 5.5%
• US CB Consumer Confidence expected to fall

The New Zealand dollar posted slight gains earlier on Tuesday but has recovered. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6101, up 0.07%.

RBNZ expected to hold rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is likely to maintain the cash rate at 5.5% for a fourth straight time. The central bank’s stance appears to be one of “higher for longer”, which will provide policy makers the flexibility to raise or lower rates as needed.

The RBNZ’s stance does not dovetail with the market view that rate cuts could come as early as May 2024. Inflation is falling and the labor market is slowing down, and the markets are betting that this trend will continue and allow the RBNZ to trim rates.

This makes Wednesday’s meeting quite interesting, not so much as to the rate decision but to how strongly Governor Orr pushes back against market expectations of rate cuts. The RBNZ said in October that rates might need to stay higher for longer in to bring inflation back down to the 1%-3% target, but a more forceful message may be needed to send the message that rate cuts are not around the corner. Orr’s press conference and updated forecasts will be opportunities to counter market expectations and present a hawkish stance on rate policy.

The US releases Conference Board Consumer Confidence later today. Consumer confidence has been falling and the downtrend is expected to continue, with a market consensus of 101.0, down from 102.6. We’ll also hear from a host of Fed members during the day, which could provide some insights into the Fed’s plans for the December meeting.

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NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6121. Above, there is resistance at 0.6167
• There is support at 0.6053 and 0.5996

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