Swiss inflation declines, Swiss franc steady

The Swiss franc is higher for a third straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9038, down 0.09% on the day.

Soft CPI cements SNB rate cut

Switzerland’s inflation rate continues to fall and that is raising concerns at the Swiss National Bank. Other central banks are worried about the upside risk of inflation but the SNB is worried about inflation dropping below its target band of between 0% and 2%.

December CPI came in at -0.1% m/m for a third straight month, in line with the market estimate. Annually, CPI ticked lower to 0.6% from 0.7% in November, also matching the market estimate. Food and services prices decelerated, while housing and energy inflation rose to 3.4%, up from 3.3% in November.

The SNB only meets four times a year and the next meeting isn’t until Mar. 30. Still, the soft December CPI report has cemented a rate cut in March, with the markets currently pricing in a  25-basis point cut at 98%. Could we see a larger cut in March? The answer is yes, if inflation continues to decelerate.

The SNB slashed rates by 50 basis points in December and the 0.1% decline in inflation in November likely was an important factor in the oversized rate cut, which was the largest in 10 years. There are two more inflation reports ahead of the March rate meeting and the SNB could respond with another 50-bp cut if inflation is close to the bottom of the 0%-2% target range.

The US releases ISM Services PMI for December, the key services indicator, later today. Over the past two years, the PMI has pointed to expansion in every month but two, pointing to prolonged growth in business activity. The PMI is expected to improve to 53.0, following 52.1 in November.

USD/CHF Technical

• USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.9053 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9097
• 0.9001 and 0.8957 are the next support levels

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