Yen falls to 11-month low, is 150 next?

• BoJ Ueda says 2% inflation target not yet achieved
• USD/JPY pushes above 149

The Japanese yen is unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 148.85.

BOJ’s Ueda says monetary policy to continue

The Bank of Japan maintained its policy settings on Friday, which really should not have been all that surprising, given the dovish messages that BoJ Governor Ueda and other BoJ members have been sending out for weeks. The BoJ does not appear to be in any rush to phase out its ultra-loose stimulus, given the weakness in Japan’s economy. Domestic consumption remains weak and the slowdown in the global economy is hurting the critical export sector.

BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated this stance on Monday, stating that the 2% target of “stable, sustainable” inflation was not yet in sight. Ueda acknowledged that inflation had exceeded 2% for a “prolonged period”, but that was not enough to indicate that the target of stable and sustainable 2% inflation had been achieved. Ueda added that the BoJ would continue to patiently maintain its monetary stance.

Inflation has remained above 2% for close to 1.5 years, but that does not seem sufficient for the BoJ. Earlier today, the BoJ Core CPI index, which is closely monitored by the central bank, remained unchanged at 3.3% in August, above the market consensus of 3.2%.

The yen has paid the price for the BoJ’s insistence on maintaining an ultra-loose policy and has had only one winning week against the dollar since July. The US/Japan rate differential continues to rise as Japanese yields stay put while US Treasury yields continue to move higher. USD/JPY broke above the 149 line on Tuesday and the symbolic 150 level seems very close at hand. Japanese officials have responded with some rhetoric about their concern over the depreciating yen and the threat of intervention is rising as the yen falls lower.

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USD/JPY Technical

• There is resistance at 149.19 and 149.93
• USD/JPY tested support at 148.79 earlier. Below, there is support at 148.05

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