JNJ pause, bank earnings preview, bitcoin ATH

J&J vaccine concerns weigh on Dow Jones

An abundance of caution is pausing the J&J COVID vaccine and that is dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  COVID variants and vaccine setbacks remain the biggest risks to the reopening trade, but it seems the J&J news is just a speed bump for the recovery. The FDA reported that as of April 12^th, over 6.8 million J&J vaccines were administered in the US and that they are reviewing 6 cases of a rare and severe type of blood clot in individuals after getting the vaccine.

The CDC/FDA news conference on the J&J vaccine signaled that the pause could be only a matter of days.  The vaccine risk is expected to be very low for anyone who got the J&J vaccine a month ago.  So far, one case was fatal, and one person is in critical condition.

Since the US has ample COVID vaccine supplies from both Pfizer and Moderna, stock market weakness from the J&J news was short-lived with the S&P 500 index.

Bank earnings

Earnings season is here and this time investors are not just looking for the banks for hints as to the strength of the US consumer.  Wall Street is focused on new announcements that might see some leverage (small hedge funds and family offices) taken out of the system, hints over their outlook for SPACS/IPOs, if trading revenues are rapidly declining, and is loan growth finally starting to improve.  The bar is set high for financials as first-quarter growth is expected to lead the charge higher at 65.6%.  The low-interest rate environment will last a little longer thanks to the Fed and that will make it hard for bank stocks to rally even if they crush their top and bottom-line results.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin mania is running wild as the Coinbase IPO is generating a new wave of retail and institutional excitement.  The question on everyone’s mind is will Wednesday start of trade for Coinbase trigger a selling event.  Some brokers will allow leveraged trading of the Coinbase IPO but there will probably be limited ability to short.

If Bitcoin can hang onto the USD60,000 level after the Coinbase debut, bullish momentum could target the USD75,000 level.

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