Week Ahead – Focus shifts back to data after Jackson Hole, NFP the highlight

US

Now that we heard from Fed Chair Powell at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, the focus shifts back to the data. This week is filled with data that will outline how quickly the economy is weakening. Consumer data will show personal income growth is not keeping up with spending, while confidence holds steady. The Fed’s favorite inflation reading is also expected to show subdued growth is holding steady on a monthly basis. Friday’s NFP report will show private sector hiring is cooling.   

Over the weekend, the spotlight will be on US-China relations.  US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will meet with Chinese officials, striving to lower tensions between the world’s two largest economies. 

The week will also be filled with Fed speak.  On Monday and Tuesday, Barr speaks about banking services. On Thursday, we hear from both Bostic and Collins, while Friday contains appearances by Bostic, a couple of hours before the NFP report, and Mester on inflation later in the morning.  

Eurozone

Next week is data-heavy but there are a few releases that stand out. The most notable is the HICP flash estimate for the eurozone on Thursday which is expected to drop slightly at the headline and core levels. There will be individual country releases in the days running up to this which may signal whether Thursday’s data will likely beat or fall short of expectations. ECB accounts are also released on Thursday which will be of interest considering markets now view the rate decision at the next meeting as a coin toss between 25 basis points and no change.   

UK 

The week starts with a bank holiday and it doesn’t get much more exciting from there. There are a few tier-three data releases and Huw Pill from the Bank of England will make appearances on Thursday and Friday.

Russia

A selection of economic data is on offer next week including unemployment on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday, and the manufacturing PMI on Friday. 

South Africa

No major events next week with PPI on Thursday the only notable release. It follows CPI data this past week which fell to 4.8%, well within the SARB 3-6% target range, following a much lower 0.9% monthly reading in July. 

Turkey

The CBRT surprised markets last week by hiking rates far more aggressively than expected, taking the repo rate to 25%, up from 17.5%. The move may cost people at the central bank their jobs if history is anything to go by, with President Erdogan openly no fan of higher rates. That said, he did employ these people shortly after his election victory so perhaps with that behind him, he may be more open to it while remaining vocally against. This week offers very little, with GDP on Thursday the only release of note.

Switzerland

Inflation data on Friday is expected to show prices rising 1.5% on an annual basis, slightly lower than in July and well below the SNB 2% target. The central bank hasn’t appeared satisfied though and markets are fully pricing in a hike in September, with 32% chance of it being 50 basis points. The manufacturing PMI will also be released on Friday, with retail sales on Thursday, and the KoF economic barometer and economic expectations on Wednesday.

China

Only three key economic releases to monitor for the coming week. First up, the NBS manufacturing and services PMIs for August will be out on Thursday. Another contractionary print of 49.5 is expected for the manufacturing sector, almost unchanged from July’s reading of 49.5. If it turns out as expected, it will be the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for manufacturing activities as China grapples with a weak external environment and domestic financial contagion risk that has been triggered by debt-laden property developers.

Secondly, the NBS services PMI for August is forecasted to remain surprisingly resilient at 51, almost unchanged from 51.5 in July. The services sector is still in an expansionary mode albeit at a slower pace that is likely being supported by domestic tourism.

Thirdly, the private sector-focused Caixin manufacturing PMI for August which consists of small and medium enterprises will be released on Friday, 1 September. Consensus is still expecting a contractionary reading of 49.5, almost unchanged from July’s print of 49.2. If it turns out as expected, it will be the second consecutive month of negative growth.

A slew of key earnings releases to take note of starting this Saturday, 26 August will be China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications followed by; BYD (Monday, 28 August), Ping An Insurance, NIO, Country Garden (Tuesday, 29 August), Agricultural Bank of China (Wednesday, 30 August), ICBC, Bank of China, China Minsheng Bank (Thursday, 31 August).

Also, market participants will be on the lookout for fiscal stimulus measures to defuse the $23 trillion debt bomb owed by local governments, financial affiliates, and property developers. On Friday, 25 August, China policymakers unveiled a further easing of its home mortgage policies that scrap a rule that disqualifies first-time homebuyers who had a mortgage that is fully repaid from being considered a first-time buyer in major cities in an attempt to boost up residential property transactions. 

India

Two key data to focus on. Q2 GDP on Thursday where the consensus is expecting a further economic growth expansion to 7% y/y in Q2, a further acceleration from 6.1% y/y recorded in Q1.

Lastly, the manufacturing PMI for August will be released on Friday where it is being forecasted to come in at 57, almost unchanged from the July reading of 57.7 which will indicate a 26th straight month of growth expansion for manufacturing activities.

Australia

Retail sales for July will be out on Monday, with a recovery to 0.3% m/m from -0.8% m/m in June.

On Wednesday, the important monthly CPI indicator for July will be out and the consensus forecast is another month of cooling to 5.2% from 5.4% in June. If it turns out as expected, RBA may have more reasons to justify its current pause at 4.1% for two consecutive meetings. Its next monetary policy meeting will be on 5 September, and as of 24 August, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures have priced in a 12% chance of a rate cut to 3.85% (25 bps cut). 

New Zealand

A quiet week with the only focus on the ANZ business confidence indicator for August on Thursday followed by ANZ consumer confidence for August on Friday.

Japan

The action comes mid-week. Consumer confidence for August is released on Wednesday and is expected to be almost the same at 37.2 versus July’s 37.1.

On Thursday, we will have retail sales and industrial production for July. Growth in retail sales is expected to slip slightly to 5.4% y/y from 5.9% in June. Meanwhile, industrial production is expected to contract to -1.4% m/m from 2.4% m/m in June, and -0.7% y/y is forecasted from 0% y/y recorded in June.

Singapore

The sole key data to monitor will be the producer prices index for July out on Tuesday with another month of negative growth forecasted at -9% y/y, a slower pace of contraction from -14.3% recorded in June. It would be the 7th consecutive month of decline.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Aug. 26

Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium concludes with speeches from BOE’s Broadbent  

Sunday, Aug. 27

Economic Data/Events

China industrial profits

US Commerce Secretary Raimondo meets with Chinese officials

Monday, Aug. 28

Economic Data/Events

Australia retail sales

Mexico trade

ECB’s Nagel, de Cos, and Holzmann, as well as Danish central bank governor Signe Krogstrup, speak at the Alpbach forum in the Austrian Tyrol

UK financial markets closed for the Summer Bank Holiday.

Tuesday, Aug. 29

Economic Data/Events

US Conference Board consumer confidence

Czech Republic GDP

Japan unemployment

Mexico international reserves, GDP

Sweden GDP

UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly to visit China and discuss war in Ukraine 

US President Biden will host Costa Rican President Chaves at White House

Bank of Finland news conference on monetary policy

US bank regulators expected to propose requirements for smaller banks

Informal meeting of EU defense ministers in Spain

Wednesday, Aug. 30

Economic Data/Events

US Q2 GDP(Prelim), wholesale inventories, pending home sales

Australia CPI, building approvals

Eurozone economic confidence, new car registrations, consumer confidence

Germany CPI

New Zealand building permits

Russia unemployment

Spain CPI

Bank of China earnings

Thursday, Aug. 31

Economic Data/Events

US personal spending and income, initial jobless claims

China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI

Eurozone CPI, unemployment

Finland GDP

France CPI, GDP

Germany unemployment

Hong Kong retail sales

India GDP

Italy unemployment, CPI

Japan industrial production, retail sales

Mexico unemployment

Poland CPI

South Africa trade balance

Thailand trade

Turkey GDP

ECB releases account of July monetary policy meeting

EU foreign affairs ministers meet in Toldeo, Spain

ECB’s Schnabel speaks at inflation conference organized by ECB and the Cleveland Fed

ECB Executive Board member Luis de Guindos speaks at seminar organized by Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain

BOE chief economist Huw Pill and Fed’s Bostic speak at South African Reserve Bank biennial conference

Friday, Sept. 1

Economic Data/Events

US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, light vehicle sales, ISM manufacturing, construction spending.

Canada GDP

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

European Final manufacturing PMI readings: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK

Hungary GDP

India manufacturing PMI

Italy GDP

Japan capital spending

Singapore to hold presidential vote

South African Reserve Bank governor Kganyago, Fed’s Bostic, and the BOE’s Huw Pill speak at the South African Reserve Bank conference

Fed’s Collins speaks on the role of community colleges at a virtual event

Ambrosetti Forum in Italy

Sovereign Rating Updates:

Belgium (Fitch)

Hungary (Moody’s)

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