Week Ahead – FOMC minutes and US jobs report eyed, RBA may hike again

US

It will be an eventful week, the ISM manufacturing report, the fourth of July Holiday, the Fed Minutes, and the nonfarm payroll report.  Wall Street is starting to believe in those Fed dot plots and this week’s economic data points may provide more evidence for the hawks.  The ISM manufacturing report is expected to show activity is stabilizing.  The Fed minutes will emphasize the fear that core inflation is proving to be stickier.  The June US jobs report is expected to show hiring cooled from the 339,000 pace to 200,000 jobs. The unemployment rate however is expected to improve from 3.7% to 3.6%.  Wage pressure is also expected to remain steady with a 0.3% increase from a month ago.   

We will hear from a couple of Fed speakers this week. Williams participates in a moderated discussion at the 2023 annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association at the New York Fed. Logan speaks on a panel about the policy challenges for central banks at the Central Bank Research Association annual meeting at Columbia University.  

Eurozone

Eurozone inflation data on Friday was very promising and while it likely won’t influence whether the ECB hikes or not in July – Lagarde previously strongly hinted they will – if followed by further signs of disinflation over the summer, it could see the central bank consider a pause in September. 

Next week is a little short of tier-one releases but final PMIs on Monday and Wednesday will be of interest, as will another appearance by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday.

UK 

Very little data of note next week with final PMIs the only highlight. That aside, central bank speak will be followed closely although in the absence of better inflation data, their hands are seemingly tied. The real question ahead of the next meeting is whether they’ll hike by 25 basis points or 50 again.

Russia

A relatively quiet week with PMIs on Monday and Wednesday as the only notable releases. That aside there’s the Russian central bank financial congress on Thursday and Friday so we may hear from Governor Elvira Nabiullina.

South Africa

The whole economy PMI is the only notable economic release or event next week.

Turkey

With the CBRT pivoting toward more conventional monetary policy in the aftermath of the election, the economic data becomes increasingly relevant and next week we’ll get June inflation numbers on Wednesday. The CPI is expected to remain close to 40% but with the currency in freefall, the inflation outlook is likely to get worse before it gets sustainably better. The central bank has stepped back from burning through reserves to support the lira and effectively pay for bad policy choices and that has sent the lira to record lows, falling more than 20% in the last month, alone.

Switzerland

CPI inflation data on Monday is expected to show the headline rate falling back below 2% to 1.8% in June. Markets are still pricing in a 25 basis point hike in September at the moment but that may change if the data matches expectations and, importantly, remains below 2%. Unemployment is also released on Friday.

China

Another set of lackluster data seen on the official NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for June released on Friday. Manufacturing activities continued to contract for the third consecutive month at 49 and growth in the services sector decelerated to a 5-month low at 53.2 from 54.5 in May.

The focus will now turn to the Caixin manufacturing PMI which consists of small and medium enterprises out on Monday. Markets are expecting almost an unchanged condition of 50.2 for June versus 50.9 recorded in May.

The Caixin services PMI will be released on Wednesday with a forecasted slowdown in growth to 56.5 for June from 57.1 in May. Time is running out for the implementation of fresh fiscal stimulus measures.

India

The manufacturing PMI is released on Monday, where the consensus is expecting a slight growth slowdown to 58 for June from 58.7 in May, its strongest reading since October 2020.

A similar trajectory is anticipated for the services PMI on Wednesday where growth is expected to dip to 60.2 in June from 61.2 recorded in May, a continuation of consolidation from April’s near 13-year high of 62.

Australia

The key highlight for this week will be RBA’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The consensus is calling for another 25 basis points hike on the cash rate, bringing it to 4.35% after recent hawkish guidance inferred from the minutes of the prior meeting.

However, the interest rates futures market has implied a reduction in the odds of a 25 bps hike due to the recent softer-than-expected annualized monthly CPI data for May; 5.6% from 6.8% in April and below expectations of 6.1%. As of 29 June, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures has priced in a 28% chance of 25 basis points (bps) hike on the cash rate, down from a 53% chance priced two weeks ago on 16 June.

On Thursday, we will have the balance of trade for May where April’s surplus of A$11.16 billion is expected to narrow to A$10.5 billion. If it turns out as expected, it will be the narrowest trade surplus since August 2022.

New Zealand

No key data.

Japan

A slew of key sentiment data to keep a lookout for this week. On Monday, big manufacturers, and non-manufacturers sentiment gauges for Q2; the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is expected to improve to 3 from 1 recorded in Q1. Likewise, a similar improvement is expected on the Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index to 22 from 20 in Q1.

On Friday, the attention turns to consumers; household spending for May is expected to see an improvement, a jump to a growth of 0.5% month-on-month from -1.3% recorded in April. On a year-on-year basis, a narrower contraction is expected at -2.4% for May from -4.4% in April, its steepest decrease since June 2021. 

Singapore

Several key data to focus on. On Monday, the preliminary URA property index for Q2 where its red-hot growth is expected to dip slightly to 2.9% quarter-on-quarter from 3.3% in Q1. The manufacturing PMI for June is released on Monday as well and is forecasted to improve slightly to 50 from 49.5 in May. If it turns out as expected it put a halt to its prior three months of contraction.

Lastly, growth in retail sales for May is expected to slow to 2.8% year-on-year from 3.6% recorded in April; a potential three consecutive months of growth slowdown.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, July 1

Economic Data/Events

Deadline for Wagner Group fighters to sign contracts with Russian Defense Ministry

Sunday, July 2

Economic Events

Pakistan Foreign Minister Zardari meets Japanese counterpart Hayashi in Japan

Monday, July 3

Economic Data/Events

US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, light vehicle sales

Australia building approvals, Melbourne Institute inflation gauge

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

Eurozone final manufacturing PMI

France manufacturing PMI

Germany manufacturing PMI

India manufacturing PMI

Japan Tankan economic survey

New Zealand building permits

Singapore home prices, official PMI

UK Manufacturing PMI

Canada Day national holiday.

Thailand’s newly elected parliament to convene

ECB’s Nagel to speak in Frankfurt

Tuesday, July 4

Economic Data/Events

US Independence Day national holiday. Financial markets closed

RBA interest rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 4.35%

Mexico international reserves

Spain unemployment

Wednesday, July 5

Economic Data/Events

FOMC issues minutes on June policy meeting

US factory orders

China Caixin services and composite PMI

Eurozone services PMI, PPI

France industrial production

Russia GDP

Singapore retail sales

Spain industrial production

Thailand CPI

The 8th OPEC International Seminar

Bundesbank symposium

ECB’s Villeroy speaks at the Paris Europlace forum

Fed‘s Williams is part of “fireside chat” at the annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) at the New York Fed

Thursday, July 6

Economic Data/Events

US initial jobless claims, trade, June ISM services index: 51.2e v 50.3 prior, job openings

Australia trade

Eurozone retail sales

Germany factory orders

Poland rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%

Taiwan CPI

Bloomberg Conference on “Foreign Direct Investment: Scaling New Heights” in London

Bank of Russia Governor Nabiullina takes part in the bank’s financial congress in St. Petersburg

Fed’s Logan speaks on a panel about the policy challenges for central banks at CEBRA meeting

Friday, July 7

Economic Data/Events

US June Change in nonfarm payrolls: 200Ke v 339K prior, unemployment rate: 3.6%e v 3.7% prior, Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior 

Canada unemployment

Chile copper exports, CPI, trade

China forex reserves

France trade

Germany industrial production

Japan household spending

Mexico CPI

ECB’s Christine addresses the REAIX 2023 “Renewing Hope” event in Aix-en-Provence, France

ECB’s de Guindos speaks at a workshop on “Examining the inflationary surge affecting economies around the world,” organized by King’s College in London

BOE’s Mann on a panel at the CEBRA meeting in New York

Sovereign Rating Updates 

Hungary (S&P)

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