Week Ahead – Turkey decides, crucial US jobs report, x-date fast approaching

US

Wall Street is starting to get nervous as we near the X-date.  A US default seemed unimaginable a couple of weeks ago and despite a lot of positive comments from both sides, negotiations will go down to the wire and that means the risk that it falls apart is growing.  Treasury Secretary Yellen will soon provide an update on the X-date and that could show talks might have an extra week from the current June 1st deadline to get a deal done.  

Economic data for the week will focus on the labor market, consumer confidence, and ISM manufacturing report.  The US economy is expected to show job growth softened from 230K to 180K in May. Consumer confidence is expected to decline from 101.3 to 99.8 and manufacturing activity is expected to remain in contraction territory.  

This week contains a handful of Fed appearances, with Barkin talking about monetary policy on Tuesday, Collins and Bowman attending a Fed Listens event on Wednesday, and Harker speaks twice, once on macroeconomic conditions, and the other time about the economic outlook. The Fed will also release its Beige Book Wednesday. A steady dose of hawkish speak along with solid job growth could make the June FOMC meeting a live one.  

Eurozone

Monday is a bank holiday for some countries including Germany and France but the rest of it is filled with economic data and central bank speakers. The standouts on the economic calendar are the flash HICP data on Thursday – which follows individual country inflation numbers earlier in the week – and accounts from the last ECB meeting on the same day. Also on that day, we’ll hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which will arguably be more insightful, particularly in light of recent data from the US and UK which showed the economies to be resilient and inflation stubborn. Is that a concern for the ECB and are investors being too optimistic on rates?

UK 

The week starts with a bank holiday and it doesn’t really pick up from there. BoE policymakers have been everywhere the last couple of weeks and it seems most are planning a week out of the spotlight which may be no bad thing. The economic data has not delivered what they wanted forcing investors to reluctantly price in four more hikes over the rest of the year. There’s no data of value next week, with the final manufacturing PMI arguably the highlight.

Russia

Unemployment is expected to tick higher to 3.6% on Wednesday, up from multi-decade lows of 3.5% and perhaps a sign of a slightly weakening labor market. The manufacturing PMI on Thursday is the only other notable release.

South Africa

A quiet week following the SARB decision on Thursday to hike rates by 50 basis points, taking the repo rate to 8.25%. This came after data on Wednesday showed inflation cooling to 6.8%, just above the 3-6% target range but the central bank warned that the risks remain to the upside.

Turkey

The run-off Presidential election on Sunday is undoubtedly the highlight of the next week. The lira hit a record low against the dollar on Friday ahead of the vote, with President Erdogan widely expected to emerge victorious after almost clinching 50% of the vote in the first round. The lira could suffer more if the result is confirmed as it means the monetary policy experiment will likely continue. A surprise victory for Kemal Kilicdaroglu could be very interesting on the open, as a potential return to normal policymaking could have a huge impact on the currency. And it would also occur in thin markets with so many countries enjoying the bank holiday break. 

Switzerland

An appearance from SNB Chair, Thomas Jordan, on Wednesday will be the highlight next week but we’ll also get GDP data on Tuesday, retail sales on Wednesday and the manufacturing PMI on Thursday. An unusually busy week.

China

It will be a key PMI week in which the NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for May will be released on Wednesday. Another month of contraction is expected for manufacturing to 49.4, a slight improvement from 49.2 in April. As for services, a dip to 55 is expected from 56.4 in April.

On Thursday, we will have the release of the Caixin manufacturing PMI for May which consists of the coverage of small and medium enterprises. Another month of contraction is expected, slipping to 49.3 from 49.5 in April. If manufacturing and services are lackluster, it will provide further evidence that the growth spurt from China’s re-opening is likely to have disappeared.

India

A couple of key data to watch. Firstly, Q1 GDP on Wednesday where a 5% year-on-year growth rate is expected, above the 4.4% y/y recorded in Q4 2022.

Next up on Thursday, we will have manufacturing PMI for May, a dip in expansion is expected to 55.8 from 57.2 printed in April. If it turns out as expected, it will be the first growth slowdown after three consecutive months of growth expansion. Lastly, on Friday, bank loan growth for May will be released.

Australia

A few data releases to focus on. On Tuesday, building permits for April, 2% month-on-month growth is expected, up from -0.1% in March.

On Wednesday, we will have the monthly CPI indicator for April, which is expected at 6.3%, unchanged from March. On the same day, private sector credit growth for April will be released, with a slight dip to 6.4% from 6.8% in March, expected. If it turns out as forecasted, it will be the sixth consecutive month of a growth slowdown.   

On Thursday, retail sales data for April is expected to show zero growth month-on-month from 0.4% in March.

New Zealand

Two key data releases to watch next week. Firstly, ANZ business confidence for May on Wednesday where the consensus forecast is -42 from -43.8 in April. If it turns out as forecasted, it will mark the 23rd consecutive month of negative readings.

Lastly, Q1 terms of trade, export prices, and import prices on Friday. A contraction of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter from 1.8% in Q4 2022 is expected. Export prices are expected to decline further to -2.7% quarter-on-quarter from -0.6% while a slower pace of decline is expected for import prices at -1.3% month-on-month from -2.1%. 

Japan

On Monday, the unemployment rate for April is expected to improve slightly to 2.7% from 2.8% in March while April’s jobs/applications ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.32.

After an upbeat flash manufacturing and services PMI data for May, the attention for this week will be on retail sales and industrial production data for April, released on Wednesday. Retail sales are expected to record a slight dip to 7% year-on-year from 7.2% in March, while industrial production is expected to increase at a faster rate of 1.5% month-on-month, from 1.1% in March.

On Wednesday, we will have consumer confidence and housing starts. Consumer confidence for May is forecasted to improve to 36 from 35.4 in April. If it turns out as expected, it will be the 4th consecutive of improvement in consumer sentiment. Housing starts for April are expected to improve to -0.9% year-on-year from -3.2% printed in March.

Given that the Nikkei 225 has just hit a 33-year high, it will be paramount to see the amount of stock investment by foreigners and data for the week ending 27 May will be released on Thursday. 

Singapore

Two key data to focus on. Firstly, the PPI for April released on Monday where is forecasted to contract further to -12% year-on-year from -11.3% in March. If it turns out as forecasted, it will mark the fourth consecutive month of contraction.

On Friday, the manufacturing PMI for May is forecasted to improve slightly to 49.9 from 49.7 in April.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, May 27

Economic Events

The US could announce an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or IPEF, if trade talks are successful with Japan, India, and South Korea

Sunday, May 28

Economic Events

Turkish presidential runoff election between incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu

Regional and municipal elections in Spain

Monday, May 29

Economic Events

US Memorial Day holiday. Markets and federal offices closed

Major European markets also closed for holidays: the UK observes Summer Bank Holiday, Switzerland and Germany closed for Whit Monday

Tuesday, May 30

Economic Data/Events

US consumer confidence

Australia building approvals

Czech Republic GDP

Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence

Japan unemployment

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand building permits

Spain CPI

Sweden GDP

Switzerland GDP

Fed’s Barkin interviewed by NABE VP/Morgan Stanley chief US economist Zentner as part of NABE monetary policy webinar series

ECB’s Holzmann speaks at a meeting of the Austrian National Bank and the European Investment Bank

EU-US Trade and Technology Council meets in Sweden

Panama Canal draft limit becomes effective and will impact the travel of large ships

Wednesday, May 31

Economic Data/Events

US job openings, Fed’s Beige Book  

Canada GDP

China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI

Finland GDP

France GDP, CPI

Germany CPI, unemployment

India GDP

Italy GDP, CPI

Japan industrial production, retail sales

Poland CPI

Russia unemployment, industrial production

South Africa trade balance

Thailand rate decision: BOT expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.00%

Turkey GDP

NATO foreign ministers start a two-day meeting in Oslo

Fed’s Harker has a fireside chat on the global macroeconomy and monetary conditions at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in Philadelphia

Fed’s Collins and Bowman give opening remarks at the “Fed Listens” event hosted by Boston Fed

ECB issues financial stability review

ECB’s Visco presents the bank’s annual report for 2022

SNB President Jordan speaks at a monetary policy conference in Lugano, Italy

BOE’s Mann speaks at the Pictet Family Forum “Central banks, inflation, monetary policy” in Zurich

Hearing on Riksbank monetary policy in Swedish parliament

Thursday, June 1

Economic Data/Events

US construction spending, initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, light vehicle sales

Tentative X-date (when the US gov’t could run out of cash to pay bills)

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

ECB Minutes for May 3-4th meeting

Eurozone HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI, CPI, unemployment

France HCOB France manufacturing PMI

Germany HCOB Germany manufacturing PMI

Hungary GDP

India manufacturing PMI

Italy unemployment

Japan capital spending

UK S&P Global / CIPS UK manufacturing PMI

ECB President Lagarde and German Finance Minister Lindner speak at German savings banks conference

European leaders gather at the second European Political Community meeting in Moldova

Fed’s Harker speaks on the economic outlook at NABE’s virtual monetary policy & outlook webinar

Sweden’s Riksbank issues report on financial stability

BRICS foreign ministers meet in Cape Town

DOE crude oil inventories report

Friday, June 2

Economic Data/Events

US May Jobs Report: 180Ke v 253K prior; Unemployment Rate: 3.5%e v 3.4% prior; Average hourly earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior

France industrial production

Mexico unemployment

Spain unemployment

Possible UK rail strike

Sovereign Rating Updates

United Kingdom (Fitch)

France (S&P)

Finland (Moody’s)

Germany (DBRS)

United Kingdom (Fitch)

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