Week Ahead – US government shutdown, RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, weekend data

US

This will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early 2021.  The September jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed from a 187,000 pace to 170,000.  Despite the loosening of the labor market, the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wage pressures are expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% to a 0.3% pace.  

The Fed will be making the rounds as nine members make appearances.  On Monday, Chair Powell and Harker take part in a roundtable talk with business owners and community leaders in Pennsylvania. Williams and Mester also speak at separate events on Monday. Tuesday contains one speech by Bostic. On Wednesday, Bowman speaks at a banking conference and Goolsbee appears at the Chicago Payments Symposium.  On Thursday, Mester talks at the Chicago Payments event and Daly speaks at the Economic Club of NY.   

Eurozone

There’s very little of note next week, just a collection of tier two and three economic releases, the bulk of which being final PMIs. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also make an appearance which will be of interest in light of the September inflation data.

UK 

Another quiet week for the UK, with tier-three economic data dominating. There are some BoE appearances but broadly speaking and barring any surprises, next week is not expected to be one for the record books.

Russia

A very quiet week with just the manufacturing and services PMI surveys being released.

South Africa

No major economic releases or events next week with only the whole economy PMI of note alongside a few tier-three releases.

Turkey

Inflation data will be of interest next week although at this point it may not have a big impact on the outlook for interest rates. At around 60% and with the lira at record lows, further large hikes will likely be necessary, regardless.

Switzerland

The SNB likely ended its tightening cycle with an attempted hawkish hold in September but as is the case with other central banks, that will depend on the data. With that in mind, there are a few economic releases of note this coming week. The September CPI number is the most obvious, while unemployment, retail sales, and the manufacturing PMI will also be of interest.

China

Key manufacturing and services PMI data for September will be released over the weekend before China’s financial markets are shut for the Golden Week holiday starting next Monday, 2 October.

The NBS manufacturing & services PMIs will be out on Saturday, 30 September. After better-than-expected prior PMI numbers as well as retail sales and industrial production for August, market participants will be scrutinizing the September PMI data for further hints of an easing of deflationary spiral risk.

The consensus is expecting a slight recovery to 50 (expansion mode) for manufacturing activities from 49.7 in August. Also of interest will be the sub-components such as new orders and production that rose to their highest level since March 2023 at 50.2 and 51.9 respectively in August. Services activities as measured by the NBS non-manufacturing PMI is forecasted to improve further to 52 from 51 in August.

The private sector compiled Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs for September consisting of more small and medium enterprises will be released on Sunday. A further improvement is expected here as well with the manufacturing PMI seen at 51.2 versus 51 previously, and the services PMI at 52.6 versus 51.8 a month earlier.

India

The manufacturing PMI for September will be released on Tuesday and is expected to dip to 57 from 58.6 in August. In addition, the services PMI is released on Thursday is expected to ease as well to 59 from 60.1 in August. That would be the second consecutive month of growth slowdown after a 13-year high of 62.3 printed in July.

On Friday, India’s central bank, the RBI will announce its monetary policy decision; the consensus is no change at 6.5% for its policy rate which would be the fourth consecutive month of standing pat.

Australia

After an uptick in the CPI to 5.2% in the year to August from 4.9% (the lowest level in 17 months), market participants will now focus on the Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge for September on Monday. It is expected to increase to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% in August.

On Tuesday, it’s the RBA monetary policy decision with the consensus expecting no change to its policy cash rate at 4.1%, extending its rate pause to a fourth consecutive month. Based on the pricing on the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures as of 28 September, there’s a 7% chance of a 25 basis points cut to 3.85%, the same as a week earlier.

The balance of trade data for August will be out on Thursday with the trade surplus expected to widen to A$9 billion from A$8.04 billion in July.

New Zealand

The RBNZ’s monetary policy decision will be released on Wednesday and no change is expected to its official cash rate at 5.5%. That would be the third consecutive month of no change due to a weak external demand environment that could hamper exports.  

Japan

On Monday, the Q3 Tankan large manufacturers and non-manufacturing indices will be released. The sentiment for large manufacturers is expected to improve further to +6 from + 5 in Q2. In a similar fashion, the mood of the large non-manufacturers is expected to rise to +24 from +23 in Q2.

Data on household spending, average cash earnings, and the preliminary reading of the leading economic index for August will be released on Friday. In the recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ex-post monetary policy decision press conference, Governor Ueda specifically mentioned that growth in wages needs to see further improvement before annualized inflation can maintain a sustainable rate above 2%.

Therefore, the average cash earnings data is likely to be closely watched and is forecasted to dip slightly to 1.2% y/y in August from 1.3% in July. 

Singapore

Two key data to focus on; the preliminary Q3 URA Property Index on Monday and retail sales on Thursday.

A further deceleration is expected in retail sales to 0.8% y/y in August from 1.1% in July. That would mark the weakest growth since January 2023.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Sept. 30

Economic Data/Events

China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI

US Congress deadline to pass a federal spending measure

Helsinki Security Forum continues

Sunday, Oct. 1

Economic Data/Events

China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Caixin services PMI

US government shutdown to start if funding lapses

UK Conservative Party Conference begins  

Monday, Oct. 2

Economic Data/Events

US construction spending, ISM manufacturing

Australia Melbourne Institute inflation

European final manufacturing PMI: Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK

Eurozone unemployment

Italy unemployment

Japan Tankan business sentiment survey

New Zealand building permits

Singapore home prices

Spain unemployment

Bank of Japan releases report on September monetary policy meeting

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a roundtable discussion with workers, small business owners and community leaders in York, Pennsylvania

Fed’s Mester speaks on economic outlook at the 50 Club of Cleveland monthly meeting

Fed’s Williams speaks at 2023 Environmental Economics and Policy Conference

ECB’s Centeno and de Cos speak at conference on financial stability at the Bank of Portugal

BOE’s Mann speaks at Redburn/Rothschild Event

Annual Adipec conference starts in Abu Dhabi

Tuesday, Oct. 3

Economic Data/Events

Australia building approvals

RBA rate decision: Bullock’s first meeting as governor; expected to keep rates steady at 4.10%

India manufacturing PMI

Mexico international reserves

US light vehicle sales

Fed’s Bostic speaks on the economic outlook at Leadership Atlanta’s alumni roundtable

ECB’s Šimkus and chief economist Lane speak at Lithuania’s central bank conference

Wednesday, Oct. 4

Economic Data/Events

US factory orders, ADP employment

Eurozone services PMI, retail sales, PPI

New Zealand rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 5.50%

Poland rate decision: Expected to cut rates

Russia GDP

ECB monetary policy conference in Frankfurt with President Lagarde, de Guindos, and Panetta  

Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at his bank’s annual payments symposium

Fed’s Bowman speaks at community banking research conference at the St. Louis Fed

Thursday, Oct. 5

Economic Data/Events

US trade, initial jobless claims

Australia trade

France industrial production

Singapore retail sales

Spain industrial production

Thailand CPI

Third meeting of the European Political Community in Spain

Fed’s Daly speaks at the Economic Club of New York

Fed’s Mester speaks at Chicago Fed’s annual payments symposium

ECB’s de Guindos chairs keynote speech session at monetary policy conference

BOE deputy governor Broadbent speaks on a panel at the ECB conference

APAC Family Office Investment Summit starts 

Friday, Oct. 6

Economic Data/Events

US September Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 170Ke, vs 187K prior; Unemployment Rate: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior; Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior

Canada unemployment

France trade

Germany factory orders

India rate decision: Expected to keep repurchase rate steady at 6.50%

Japan household spending

Informal meeting of EU heads of state or government in Spain

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