AUD/USD – Aussie Rally Continues As Consumer Sentiment Improves

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Wednesday, as the pair flirts with the 0.94 line early in the North American session. The Aussie is on a roll, having gained about 150 points in the past week. On the release front, Australian Consumer Sentiment bounced back with a gain in May. In the US, today’s highlight is Crude Oil Inventories.

On Wednesday, Australian Consumer Sentiment posted a modest gain of 0.2%, bouncing back after a sharp decline of 5.6% a month earlier. This was welcome news, as the consumer confidence indicator posted only its second gain of the year. Earlier in the week, CPI jumped 2.5% in May, a four-month high. The strong reading edged above the estimate of 2.4%. NAB Business Confidence came in at 7 points, as the indicator continues to move upwards. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. We could see some stronger movement on Thursday, with the release of Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

There was more good news on the US employment front, as JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.46 million, up sharply from 4.01 million a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 4.04 million, and comes on the heels of a positive Nonfarm Payrolls last week. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims on Thursday, with the markets expecting a slight improvement compared to the previous release.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, June 11, 2014

AUD/USD June 11 at 13:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9390 H: 0.9406 L: 0.9365

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Wednesday. The pair briefly pushed above the 0.94 in the European session.
• 0.9361 is providing weak support. 0.9229 is a stronger line.
• 0.9446 is the next resistance line. This is followed by resistance of 0.9617.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.911 and, 0.9000
• Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9886

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions, reversing the trend we’ve seen since last week. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The pair currently has a majority of short positions, indicative of a trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing direction and losing ground.

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Wednesday. The pair is unchanged in the North American session.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Actual 0.2%.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.3M.
• 17:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
• 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -132.8B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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