AUD/USD – Slight Gains Ahead of Australian Retail Sales

The Australian dollar has posted small gains on Tuesday, as AUD/USD trades in the mid-0.87 range in the North American session. In the US, CB Consumer Confidence fell to 86.0 points, well short of expectations. Today’s only Australian release, Private Sector Credit, posted a gain of 0.4%. The markets are keeping a close eye on Australian Retail Sales, which will be released early on Wednesday. This is a key event which can affect the direction of AUD/USD.

The wobbly Aussie looked awful last week, shedding about 180 points against the sharp US dollar. For the month of September, the currency has plunged a remarkable 600 points. Will the downward spiral continue this week? The RBA should be pleased at the Aussie’s vanishing act, as the central bank has often expressed its unease at the currency’s high value, which has weighed on economic growth.

Earlier in the week, US Pending Home Sales posted a decline of 1.0%, compared to last month’s gain of 3.3%. The important housing indicator has shown strong movement, resulting in readings that have been well off market estimates. US housing indicators continue to paint a mixed picture, as New Home Sales jumped last month, while Existing Home Sales softened and was well short of  expectations.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, September 30, 2014

AUD/USD September 30 at 14:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8751 H: 0.8768 L: 0.8694

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD moved higher in the Asian session, breaking past resistance at 0.8768.  This line recovered as the pair lost ground in the European session. AUD/USD has resumed moving upwards in North American trade.
• 0.8668 is providing strong support.
• On the upside, 0.8763 was breached but has recovered. It remains a weak line. 0.8820 is stronger.
• Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456 and 0.8315
• Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953, 0.9020 and 0.9119

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving to higher ground.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 1:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%.
• 13:00 US S&P Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 7.5%. Actual 6.7%.
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 61.6 points. Actual 60.5 points.
• 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 92.2 points. Actual 86.0 points.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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