AUD/USD – Aussie Lower on Mixed Data

AUD/USD has posted losses on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.81 range. On the release front, Australian ANZ Job Advertisements posted a strong gain of 1.8%, but Home Loans disappointed with a decline of 0.7%. In the US, the only data release out of the US is the Labor Conditions Market Index. As well, FOMC member Dennis Lockhart will deliver a speech in Atlanta.

Australian data was mixed on Monday. ANZ Job Advertisements posted a gain of 1.8% in December, its best showing in six months. The news was less positive from the housing sector, as Home Loans came in at -0.7%, well off the estimate of a 1.8% gain. The indicator continues to sputter, and has posted three declines in its past four readings.

US releases wrapped up the week in fine fashion, as employment data shined. Nonfarm Employment Change, one of the most important indicators, posted a gain of 252 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 241 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6%, edging below the forecast of 5.7%. Meanwhile, Average Earnings dropped 0.2%, its first decline since July 2013. A lack of wage pressure means that the Fed may be able to postpone a rate hike until the second half of 2015.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its previous meeting on Wednesday, with no surprises for the markets. There had been plenty of speculation that the insertion of the word “patience” in the previous policy statement signaled a more aggressive monetary stance. However, the minutes stated that Fed members remained of the view that Fed policy had not changed, and that a rate hike was unlikely before April. Although economic growth continues to improve, inflation remains at very low levels, which means that the economy is in no danger of overheating, so there is no immediate need for a rate increase.

AUD/USD for Monday, January 12, 2015

AUD/USD January 12 at 15:10 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8155 H: 0.8255 L: 0.8131

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD posted modest gains in the Asian session. The pair then made a sharp reversal in the European session, losing about 100 points and testing support at 0.8150. The pair is unchanged in the North American session.
• 0.8214 is an immediate resistance line.
• On the downside, 0.8150 is under strong pressure. 0.8081 is stronger.
• Current range: 0.8150 to 0.8214.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8150, 0.8081, 0.7904 and 0.7799
• Above: 0.8214, 0.8315, 0.8456 and 0.8547

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual 1.8%.
• 00:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate+ 1.8%. Actual -0.7%.
• 15:10 US Labor Market Conditions Index. Actual 6.1 points.
• 17:40 US FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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