Buy the EUR Rumor and Sell that Fact?

The EUR again has failed to break out of its current range. When its on its knees, down and just about out, Chinese PMI lends a hand in the overnight session. The world’s second-biggest economy has withstood weaker exports driven by the Euro periphery debt crisis and a government-induced property slowdown to give a PMI print of 50.5. A print that still is in expansion territory, no matter if the data may be distorted by a weeklong holiday.

Along with a rise in risk appetite influenced by a ‘whisper’ that a Greek debt deal is imminent, has the EUR testing against its upper range. In truth, it’s difficult to find a diehard Bull amongst us. The market psyche has us believing that most EUR positive moves are supposedly an excellent opportunity to add to the record short positions. These EUR short squeezes are to be treated as an opportunity-no action taken and it becomes a cost! The weak bears certainly hope so.

A successful conclusion to the PSI talks as “promised and expected” will not be the end of the matter-negotiations will remain ongoing. Why? The haircuts being discussed (around 70%) naturally will meet “with very unsatisfactory participation from the perspective of Greek and Euro/IMF authorities for forward looking debt sustainability.” Greece is likely to legislate Collective Action Clauses into the outstanding debt. The objective would be, once legislated, they can be used more coercively to force participation in the restructuring process-In English, whatever is agreed upon, there will be more negotiations required. The nightmare does not end with a successful PSI announcement.

Given that there are so many technical details to be worked out, maybe the market is not fully reflecting the difficulties that are likely to be associated with completing the Greek rescue package. For now, data showing that contraction in the Euro-zone factory activity last month (48.8 vs. 46.9) has slowed is supporting the single currency. Germany remains the outlier, the only country registering a reading above 50, indicating expansion. No matter, investors will wait for the promised Greek PSI agreement before outright celebrating. So, is it buy the rumor sell the fact time now?

Other Links:
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