CAD CPI in agreement with BoC revised forecast

There were no surprises in this morning’s data, inflation remains subdued, albeit in a slightly stronger month over month pace in non-seasonally adjusted terms (+0.2% vs. -0.1%), in part due to the weak base effect from the previous report. The seasonally adjusted headline (+0.3%) came in stronger than the non-seasonal, while the all important core (+0.1%) was a tad weaker.

The prints were very much in line with this week’s OCT MPR report. Policy makers revised forecast was for headline CPI to come in at +1.8%, y/y (July estimates stood at +2.1%), and this morning’s number matches that for the full quarter while inflation remains below the +2% target.

On a seasonally unadjusted basis, three of the eight major components registered declines, including food, shelter and health. Clothing happened to lead the gains (+3%). Under the special aggregates, energy and gas were down -0.4% and -0.3%, respectively. Prices of consumer goods were up +0.1%, while those of services were +0.2% higher.

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