China Rises Exports Forecast With Recovery Back on Track

China’s exports are forecast to have rebounded in October after a surprise fall, reinforcing the government’s view that the economy has regained some momentum as its prepares to unveil plans to overhaul the world’s second-largest economy.

Forecasts in a Reuters poll for October data due out from later this week also have inflation rising to an 18-month high, retail sales and M2 money supply growth rates edging up slightly, while investment and industrial output tick down.

China’s leaders have touted stability rather than fast growth as they head into the Communist Party’s third plenary session, to be held November 9-12, where they are expected to outline plans to transform the economy into one driven by consumers rather than credit and investment.

“Given that policymakers have already said that they are no longer worried about meeting the growth target, we expect the focus to be on restructuring reforms,” said Jiaguang Shen, an economist with Minzhuo Securities in a note.

State media has quoted President Xi Jinping saying the reform plan would be comprehensive, and a series of articles from the official Xinhua news agency have flagged sweeping changes.

Analysts expect the economy to slow in the December quarter after growing at its quickest pace this year between July and September, in part due to the reform push but also because of global uncertainties.

via Reuters

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.