EUR/USD – Euro gains ground as China and US to hold trade talks

EUR/USD has posted small losses in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1372, up 0.24% on the day. On the release front, the German Wholesale Price Index dropped to 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. The eurozone trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.7 billion, missing the estimate of EUR 17.0 billion. In the U.S, there are a host of key indicators. Building Permits and Housing Starts are both expected to rise, with estimates of 1.31 million and 1.27 million, respectively. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is forecast to drop to 21.9 points and unemployment claims is expected to edge up to 215 thousand. On Friday, the eurozone releases Final CPI and the U.S publishes Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The euro has endured a rough August, losing 2.7 percent in that time. Weak growth in the eurozone and trade tensions with the U.S have affected investor sentiment, and the euro has struggled as a result, trading this week at 14-month lows against a strong U.S dollar. However, the euro’s fortunes could improve, with news that the U.S and China will be holding trade talks. The negotiations will be handled by low-level officials and are being billed as ‘talks about talks’. Still, the markets are hopeful that the two sides are talking rather than slapping tariffs against each other.

Eurozone GDP in the second quarter managed to beat the estimate, but investors were not impressed. The economy posted a modest gain of 0.4% for a second straight quarter. The estimate stood at 0.3%. Concern about the eurozone economy was underscored by another negative reading from German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The indicator gained ground in August but still remains in negative territory, with a reading of -13.7 points. This marked a fourth straight decline.

  Aussie drops on hints of potential China slowdown

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (August 16)

• 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.0%
• 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 17.0B. Actual 16.7B
• 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.31M
• 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.27M
• 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.9
• 14:00 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 30B

Friday (August 17)

• 5:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 2.1%
• 5:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 1.1%
• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, August 16, 2018

EUR/USD for August 16 at 6:25 DST

Open: 1.1346 High: 1.1398 Low: 1.1336 Close: 1.1374

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session and is steady in European trade

• 1.1312 is providing support
• 1.1434 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1312, 1.1119 and 1.0951
• Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1637
• Current range: 1.1312 to 1.1434

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