EUR/USD – Euro under pressure ahead of ECB decision

EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Wednesday session, but the pair’s trend this week has been downwards. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1302, down 0.05% on the day. There are no eurozone or German events on the calendar. In the U.S., the major event is ADP nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to dip to 190 thousand. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.00%. The U.S. releases unemployment claims.

All eyes will be on the ECB, which releases a rate statement on Thursday. The bank has pegged interest rates at a flat 0.00% since March of 2016. Economic activity in the eurozone has not been strong enough to warrant rate hikes over the past two years. At the same time, with the ECB winding up its massive stimulus program in December, any improvement in economic data (or rise in inflation) will raise speculation about a rate hike. The eurozone economy showed some strength in the first half of 2018, which led to talk of a rate hike in the second half of 2019. However, with Germany and the eurozone in the midst of a slowdown triggered by global trade tensions, it’s unlikely that the ECB will make a rate move before 2020.

In the U.S., the focus for the remainder of the week will be on employment numbers. The key events are nonfarm payrolls and wage growth, which will be released on Friday. Analysts are expecting mixed numbers on Friday. Wage growth is expected to improve to 0.3%, but nonfarm payrolls are projected to slide to 185 thousand, after a strong gain of 304 thousand in the previous release. The unemployment rate has been at record lows, and is expected to dip to a sizzling 3.9% in the February report.

Euro trades softer as ECB looms

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (March 6)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 190K
• 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -57.8B
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M
• 12:00 US FOMC Member William Speaks
• 14:00 US Beige Book

Thursday (March 7)

• 5:00 Eurozone Final Employment Change. Estimate 0.3%
• 5:00 Eurozone Revised GDP. Estimate 0.2%
• 7:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%
• 7:45 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• 8:30 ECB Press Conference
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 225K

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, March 6, 2019

EUR/USD for March 6 at 5:50 EST

Open: 1.1340 High: 1.1341 Low: 1.1316 Close: 1.1328

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions

• 1.1300 is a weak support level
• 1.1434 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
• Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

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