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Europe update – Fed, Earnings, Brexit, Oil, Gold

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Traders nervous ahead of the Fed

Equity markets are trading in negative territory on Tuesday, with some disappointing earnings weighing heavily in Europe and perhaps a little profit taking also kicking in ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday.

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

With US equity markets sitting around record highs, a lot is hanging on the Fed to deliver not only the bare minimum of a 25 basis point rate cut but also guidance that more will follow. Investors seem a little nervous following some less dovish commentary prior to the blackout period and then an ECB meeting that didn’t go entirely to plan. Perhaps this is weighing on sentiment a little today.

Trade talks resume today in Shanghai but there isn’t much optimism around the talks, perhaps a reflection of the belief that we’ve been here before and not got anyway. Of course, as time ticks by the sense of urgency will ramp up but for now, there is a feeling that these talks will drag on and little is likely to be achieved this week.

The data today could be of more interest, with income, spending and inflation data due out of the US. It’s not going to have any impact on tomorrow’s decision but it could help shape what they do in the coming months, with a lack of inflation one of the key arguments for the central bank to keep cutting rates.

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Sterling taking a pounding on no-deal Brexit fears

Brexit taking its toll on the pound is not a new story but Johnson’s new team has been on a PR offensive in recent days and the currency is once again taking a beating. Johnson is adamant to avoid the mistakes of his predecessor and have his no-deal threats be taken seriously by Brussels as he seeks to renegotiate the backstop and deliver Brexit on 31 October.

Traders are clearly sitting up and taking notice, with the pound slipping again on Tuesday, dropping to its lowest since March 2017 and looking susceptible to further pain. Johnson’s camp won’t be concerned by this, quite the opposite, they’ll be happy that the market is taking them at their word and hoping Brussels does to. Still, it could be a long few months.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

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Oil edges higher ahead of API report

We’ve seen some consolidation in oil recently but it’s being given a slight lift ahead of the API report on Tuesday. A huge drawdown was largely shrugged off last week due to the temporary shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of Tropical Storm Barry. Traders may be less forgiving if we see a similar result today and perhaps that’s what’s being anticipated as oil creeps higher.

Brent Daily Chart

Gold treading water ahead of Fed decision

Gold is holding its ground ahead of the Fed decision, with traders maybe a little nervous at the central banks ability or willingness to live up to aggressive market expectations. Policy makers have worked hard to temper expectations of a 50 basis point cut ahead of the meeting but traders haven’t been deterred when it comes to the months ahead. Markets could therefore be prone to disappointment which could weigh on the yellow metal, putting $1,400 support under pressure.

Gold Daily Chart

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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