EUR/USD – Euro Edges Upwards as German and Eurozone Mfg. Reports Sparkle

EUR/USD has pushed above the 1.08 line on Friday, courtesy of strong PMI numbers out of Germany and the Eurozone. In Germany, Flash Manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.3, above the forecast of 56.6 points. Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI improved to 56.2, above the estimate of 55.3. Both indicators hit their highest levels since 2011. There was further good news, as Services PMIs in Germany and Europe also pointed to stronger expansion. In the US, today’s highlight is Core Durable Goods Orders, which is expected to rebound with a gain of 0.5%, after a decline of 0.2% in the previous reading.

It promises to be busy Friday on Capitol Hill, with the focus on health care legislation. President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), wants the House of Representatives to vote on Friday on a bill which repeals and replaces part of Obamacare. A vote on Thursday was shelved, as there was not enough support to pass the bill. The proposed health bill has become a litmus test for the Trump administration, as a failure to pass the bill would indicate that Trump may not be able to push through Congress his pledges to lower taxes and increase fiscal stimulus. The dollar has sustained broad losses in the past week, in part over market frustration over the lack of any details regarding economic policy from Trump. If the President cannot make good on his assault on Obamacare, the dollar could continue to lose ground.

The economic picture has brightened in the eurozone, as the economy has improved in recent months. The German economy, the largest economy in Europe, remains in solid shape and is expected to expand 1.5% in 2017. However, consumer confidence has not followed suit. GfK German Consumer Climate lost ground for a second straight month, as the GfK indicator fell to 9.8 in March, its lowest level since November 2016. Eurozone Consumer Confidence remains weak, as the indicator posted a decline of -5 in March, almost unchanged. These soft numbers are largely a result of higher inflation, as consumers are concerned about their reduced purchasing power.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (March 24)

• 4:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.4. Actual 53.4
• 4:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 56.2. Actual 58.5
• 4:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.6. Actual 58.3
• 4:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.5. Actual 55.6
• 5:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.3. Actual 56.2
• 5:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.4. Actual 56.5
• 8:00 US FOMC Member Charles Evans Speech
• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.1%
• 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.9
• 9:45 Flash Services PMI. Estimate 53.9

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, March 24, 2017

EUR/USD March 24 at 5:05 EST

Open: 1.0789 High: 1.0807 Low: 1.0768 Close: 1.0802

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session but has recovered in European trade

• 1.0708 continues to provide support
• 1.0873 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.0708, 1.0616 and 1.0506
• Above: 1.0873, 1.0985 and 1.1097
• Current range: 1.0708 to 1.0873

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Friday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (59%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.