EUR/USD – Euro Steady, PMIs Meet Expectations

EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Monday, as the pair trades at 1.0630 in the European session. In economic news, it’s a busy start to the week, as Eurozone Service and Manufacturing PMIs pointed to expansion. In the US, we’ll get a look at Manufacturing PMI and Housing Starts. On Tuesday, the US releases Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.

The new trading week kicked off on a positive note, as Eurozone PMIs were upbeat. Analysts were keeping a close look at German and French Manufacturing PMIs, which are key events. Both indicators were both slightly above the forecast, with German Manufacturing PMI coming in at 52.6 points, and the French indicator at 50.8 points. All of the Services and Manufacturing PMIs in November were above the 50-point level, which separates contraction from expansion. This points to expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors, which is welcome news, as the Eurozone economy has been hampered by weak growth.

Eurozone inflation levels remain anemic, and this was underscored on Friday, as Germany released PPI for October. The manufacturing inflation index came in at -0.4%, missing the estimate of -0.2%. The struggling indicator posted its fourth decline in five months, and has not posted a gain above 0.1% in all of 2015. The ECB remains very concerned about deflation, as indicated in the minutes of its recent November policy meeting. The central bank has revised downwards its inflation outlook, and the markets are keeping a close eye on the next policy meeting on December 3. This could be a critical meeting, as the ECB could elect to cut rates or expand the current asset-purchasing program in order to combat deflation and try to breathe some life into the sluggish economy. Any of these steps will likely weigh on the struggling euro, which is trading at 7-month lows against a strong US dollar.

Last week’s Fed minutes did not confirm a December rate hike, but most analysts feel that the long-awaited move will indeed occur next month. Market expectations have risen to 66% that the Fed will make a move next month, and recent comments by Fed policymakers have hinted that a rate move is a strong possibility. At the past two policy meetings, the vote against a rate hike was 9-1, but that clearly will not be the outcome at the December meeting. With the US economy showing improvement and employment and consumer indicators pointing upwards, the markets appear prepared for a small hike of 0.25% or 0.50%, and there is a growing view that a modest move would not cause unwanted turbulence on the global markets. One remaining question mark in the rate move puzzle is that of inflation levels. Recent inflation readings have been weak, and the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is a key consideration in any decision to raise rates. The markets will get a look at key inflation indicators shortly before the critical Fed policy meeting on December 16.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (Nov. 23)

• 8:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.7 points. Actual 50.8 points
• 8:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 52.1 points. Actual 51.3 points
• 8:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.6 points. Actual 52.2 points
• 8:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.6 points. Actual 54.3 points
• 9:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.8 points. Actual 52.3 points
• 9:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.6 points. Actual 54.2 points
• All Day – Eurogroup Meeetings
• 14:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.0 points
• 15:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.39M

Upcoming Key Events

Tuesday (Nov. 24)

• 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 2.0%
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 99.3 points

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

EUR/USD for Monday, November 23, 2015

EUR/USD November 23 at 12:10 GMT

EUR/USD 1.0622 H: 1.0643 L: 1.0600

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has been uneventful in the Asian and European sessions.
• 1.0659 has switched to a resistance role. It is a weak line.
• On the downside, 1.0500 is a strong support line.
• Current range: 1.0500 to 1.0659

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.05, 1.0359 and 1.0287
• Above: 1.0659, 1.0732, 1.0847 and 1.0941

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing some slight movement towards long positions. The ratio has a slight majority of long positions (54:46). This indicates slight trader bias towards the pair moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.