EUR/USD – Euro Starts Off Week Steady, Testing 1.32 Level

EUR/USD is steady as we begin the new trading week. The pair is testing the 1.32 line in Monday’s European session. The week is starting off slowly, with just two releases on the schedule. In the Eurozone, Sentix Investor Confidence posted its best showing in over two years. In the US, Consumer Credit will be released later today. On Friday, US Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed, missing the estimate.

We have seen stronger confidence indicators out of the Eurozone, and Sentix Investor Confidence continued the positive trend on Monday. The indicator shot up from -4.9 points in July to a solid +6.5 points in August. Remarkably, this is the first reading above zero since August 2011, indicative of entrenched pessimism among investors over the past two years. The markets will be hoping that other confidence indicators follow suit with strong readings.

The US ended last week on a disappointing note, as the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 169 thousand, missing the estimate of 178 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%, but this improvement is not all that significant, given the low participation rate in the labor force. The Fed continues to keep its cards away from prying market eyes, but we’re unlikely to see QE tapering without stronger employment numbers. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans hinted that we could see some action on this front from the Fed before the end of the year.

EUR/USD for Monday, September 9, 2013

EUR/USD 1.3194 H: 1.3198 L: 1.3168

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is trading quietly in Monday trading, just below the 1.32 line.
• The pair continues to face resistance at the round number of 1.33. The next line of resistance is at 1.3410.
• On the downside, 1.3162 is a weak line. This is followed by a support level at the round number of 1.3100. This line has remained intact since mid-June.
• Current range: 1.3162 to 1.3300

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3162, 1.3100, 1.3050 and 1.3000
• Above: 1.3300, 1.3410, 1.3476, 1.3585 and 1.3649

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD continues to have a solid majority of short positions, indicative of a strong trader bias towards the US dollar making gains at the expense of the euro.

EUR/USD has opened the week trading close to the 1.32 line. With only one minor release out of the US later in the day, we could see the pair remain close to 1.32.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate -4.0 points. Actual 6.5 points.
• 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 12.7B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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