EUR/USD – Little Movement Ahead of EU Summit, US Retail Sales

It continues to be a very quiet week for the euro, as EUR/USD trades in the low-1.13 range on Thursday. On the release front, EU leaders meet in Brussels, with the Greek bailout crisis high on the agenda. On the economic front, German CPI posted a decline of -1.1%. Eurozone Industrial Production slipped to 0.0%. In the US, we’ll get a look at retail sales reports and unemployment claims, so we could see some movement from the pair during the North American session.

European finance ministers met in Brussels on Wednesday, but were unable to bridge the gap between Greece and its creditors. The bailout agreement expires at the end of February, and the next bailout payment of about EUR 7 billion is on hold as Greece has declared it will not abide by the austerity steps which are required to receive the funds. Greece is looking for bridge financing until a new deal can be reached, but Germany and the troika have balked at rewriting the agreement. There could be some developments on this front as EU heads of state gather on Thursday to Brussels, including German Chancellor Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras.

US employment numbers continue to impress, as JOLTS Jobs Openings climbed to 5.05 million, matching expectations. This was the indicator’s highest level since 2001, and points to more available jobs due to an increase in demand for goods and services. The strong reading follows a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which was released on Friday. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. Will unemployment claims follow suit with a strong reading on Thursday? Strong job numbers will increase the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in mid-2015, which is bullish for the US dollar.

EUR/USD for Thursday, February 12, 2015

EUR/USD February 12 at 9:45 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1339 H: 1.1354 L: 1.1303

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has edged higher in the European session and has tested resistance at 1.1340.
• On the upside, 1.1340 is fluid. Will this line break during the day? 1.1426 is stronger.
• 1.1231 is a strong support line.
• Current range: 1.1231 to 1.1340

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
• Above: 1.1340, 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Thursday, continuing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German Final CPI. Estimate -1.0%. Actual -1.1%.
• 10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.0%.
• All Day – EU Economic Summit.
• 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%.
• 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282 thousand.
• 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%.
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 165B.
• 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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