EUR/USD – Little Movement Ahead of Eurozone Talks Over Greece

The euro is listless on Wednesday, as EUR/USD continues to have a very quiet week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading in the low-1.13 range. On the release front, today’s highlight is the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Brussels. There are no major releases out of the Eurozone or US on Wednesday.

The markets remain focused on Greece, as the bailout crisis continues. After the new Greek government said it would not renew the EUR 240 billion bailout under the current terms, the ECB announced that it will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral for ECB loans as of February 11. Greece is proposing a new 10-step deal that removes the harsh austerity steps, which Greece has called “toxic”, required under the bailout. However, Germany and Greece’s international creditors do not want to rewrite the bailout agreement. On Wednesday, EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels, with the Greek crisis on top of the agenda. If there are any major announcements out of Brussels on Wednesday, we could see some movement from EUR/USD.

US employment numbers continue to impress, as JOLTS Jobs Openings climbed to 5.05 million, matching expectations. This was the indicator’s highest level since 2001, and points to more available jobs due to an increase in demand for goods and services. The strong reading follows a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which was released on Friday. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. The Federal Reserve has been clear that the employment numbers will have to be strong before a rate hike kicks in, so these strong employment releases reinforce expectations for an interest rate in mid-2015, which would be a major boost for the US dollar.

EUR/USD for Wednesday, February 11, 2015

EUR/USD February 11 at 9:55 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1322 H: 1.1345 L: 1.1306

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has shown almost no movement in the Asian and European sessions.
• 1.1340 remains a weak resistance line. Will this line break during the day? 1.1426 is stronger.
• 1.1231 is an immediate support line.
• Current range: 1.1231 to 1.1340

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
• Above: 1.1340, 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Wednesday. This is consistent with the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• All Day – Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings.
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 3.7M.
• 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
• 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -2.6B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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