EUR/USD – Little Movement as Spanish Unemployment Beats Estimate

The euro has been listless for the past week, and the trend continues on Tuesday, as EUR/USD trades quietly in the low-1.13 range. On the release front, it’s a quiet day. Spanish Unemployment Change came in at 78.0 thousand, beating expectations. In the US, today’s highlight is Factory Orders. The markets are bracing for a sharp decline of 1.8%.

With the new Greek government looking to renegotiate its debt, Greece and its international creditors will have to reach some accommodation over Greece’s EUR 320 billion bailout program. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has offered an olive branch to Athens, saying he is willing to scrap the troika mission, which represents the European Commission, ECB and the IMF and governs the bailout. However, he ruled out writing off any part of Greece’s debt. The new Greek government has stated it wishes to remain in the Eurozone but does not want to accept more bailout funds under the present agreement. Germany, which essentially calls the shots with regard to the bailout, has taken a hard line as it doesn’t want the Greek situation to set a precedent for other Eurozone members who have received bailouts. It is early going in this newest Greek saga, and the plot is sure to thicken.

US Advance GDP for Q4 disappointed, posting a gain of 2.6%. The markets had anticipated a gain of 3.0%. Still, market sentiment towards the US economy remains positive, underscored by the Federal Reserve statement last week, where the Fed noted solid growth in the economy. The Fed remains on track to raise rates later in 2015, and the dollar will likely benefit as speculation continues over the timing of a rate hike.

Spanish releases continue to impress. Unemployment Change rose by 78.0 thousand, well below the estimate of 83.4 thousand. On Monday, Spanish Manufacturing PMI improved to 54.7 points in January, up from 53.8 points a month earlier. Last week GDP for Q4 posted a respectable gain of 0.7% in Q4. At the same time, deflation remains a serious concern, as Spanish CPI fell 1.4%. in January.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, February 3, 2015

EUR/USD February 3 at 9:50 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1331 H: 1.1354 L: 1.1292

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair continues to test resistance at 1.3340.
• 1.1231 remains a strong support level.
• On the upside, 1.1340 is under strong pressure. Will the pair break through during the day? 1.1426 is stronger.
• Current range: 1.1231 to 1.1340

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0906
• Above: 1.1340, 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in Tuesday trade. This is consistent with the pair’s lack of movement. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:15 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate 83.4K. Actual 78.0K.
• 10:00 Italian Preliminary CPI. Estimate -0.1%.
• 10:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate -0.7%.
• 15:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate -1.8%.
• All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.0M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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