EUR/USD – Steady As US Job Openings Falters

EUR/USD finds itself in a very narrow range in Wednesday trading, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.32 range in Wednesday’s European session. The US posted another weak employment release on Tuesday, as US JOLTS Jobs Openings fell short of the estimate. There are no key releases out of the Eurozone or the US on Tuesday. In the Eurozone, French Final Non-Farm Payrolls and German Final CPI both matched their estimates. In the US, President Obama addressed the nation about the Syrian crisis, saying that the US was postponing military action while there was a possibility that a diplomatic solution could be reached.

QE tapering continues to be a hot topic, but recent weak US employment numbers may cause a delay. Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings looked weak, coming in at 3.69 million, way off the estimate of 3.96 million. Last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 169 thousand, missing the estimate of 178 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%, but this improvement is not all that significant, given the low participation rate in the labor force. There has been talk of the Fed reducing QE as early as September, but we’re unlikely to see any action if employment numbers don’t improve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has hinted that we could see some action on this front from the Fed before the end of the year.

The Syrian crisis has taken on a new twist, as the US and Russia are looking for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Under the proposed plan, Syria would destroy its entire arsenal of chemical weapons. President Obama spoke on US television on Monday and said that he would delay any military action as long as a diplomatic solution was possible, but that a strike against Syria was still on the table. If the diplomatic efforts gain momentum and the crisis eases, we could see the safe-haven dollar lose ground.

Over in Europe, we are seeing stronger confidence data and Sentix Investor Confidence continued the positive trend on Monday. The indicator shot up from -4.9 points in July to a solid +6.5 points in August. Remarkably, this is the first reading above zero since August 2011, indicative of entrenched pessimism among investors over the past two years. If other confidence indicators follow suit, the euro could get a boost.

EUR/USD for Wednesday, September 11, 2013

EUR/USD 1.3266 H: 1.3281 L: 1.3244

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD continues to trade quietly in the mid-1.32 range in Wednesday trading.
• The pair is facing resistance at the round number of 1.33. The next line of resistance is at 1.3410.
• On the downside, 1.3162 is providing support. This line has some breathing room as EUR/USD trades at higher levels. This is followed by a support level at 1.3100. This line has remained intact since mid-June.
• Current range: 1.3162 to 1.3300

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3162, 1.3100, 1.3050 and 1.3000
• Above: 1.3300, 1.3410, 1.3476, 1.3585 and 1.3649

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in Wednesday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the pair trades in a narrow range. The ratio continues to have a solid majority of short positions, indicative of a strong trader bias towards the US dollar making gains at the expense of the euro.

EUR/USD continues to trade quietly in the mid-1.32 range. With no major releases scheduled on Wednesday, it could be another quiet day for the pair.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 1:00 President Obama Speaks.
• 5:30 French Final Non-Farm Payrolls. Estimate -0.2%. Actual -0.2%.
• 6:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.0%.
• Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction.
• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.2M.
• 17:00 US 10-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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