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Gold – Bullish case despite softness?

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Gold looking soft but could still be a bullish case

The dollar is once again being favoured during the escalation of the trade spat, as yields on US Treasuries continue to head lower.

Whether this is a sign of Treasuries being the preferred safe haven during the stock market sell-off or a belief that the US will be least worse off, it’s very much consistent with what we’ve seen previously.

What’s more, it’s making life tough for the other traditional safe haven, gold. While the yellow metal typically performs well during periods of risk aversion, it also responds strongly to movements in the greenback and is therefore being dragged lower recently by movements in the currency. Gold is trading back below $1,280 today putting the focus back around the $1,265 lows of the last couple of months.

Gold Daily Chart

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

One bullish case for gold at the moment is that it performed well during the fourth quarter after a stuttered start, perhaps that’s what we’re seeing now. The recent trend isn’t particularly favourable though and if $1,265 breaks, it may signal that this time is different. That’s obviously a big “if” for a level that’s currently being strongly defended.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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